World War III is Already Underway

On July 31, 2024, Israel allegedly detonated a bomb in the guesthouse in Tehran where Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, was staying at the time. He died in the blast. The Israelis as usual have not claimed responsibility for the bombing, but it is believed to be their work. The most unpleasant thing about this incident is that Ismail Haniyeh was Hamas’s lead negotiator in cease-fire talks to end the Gaza war.
Who (and how?) is Israel going to negotiate with now if it has killed the previous chief negotiator? Or is Israel not going to negotiate? Or does it want to make the next negotiator more cooperative in such way?

Disintegration energy in action.

I have written before in articles of the «Disintegration» series: humans in their development/degradation have come to a period of of increasing man-made and natural disasters, diseases/viruses/pandemics, extreme weather, polluted environment, collapse of international organizations and different states (both democratic and authoritarian), shortages of water, food, energy and, of course, wars.
Human essence has not changed and further on we will be witnessing more and more that people are just gangs of brigands and the authoritarian "right of the mighty" returns after a short-lived triumph of the democratic "might of the right".

Nations have somehow managed to agree the rules of co-existence over the last 80 years and built a global, technically and technologically advanced civilization, but also vulnerable one, which passed its peak, I think, right after the first personal computers went into mass production (1980s). In the 1990s, the first wave of disintegration of international unions and some countries have already occurred: the Warsaw Pact collapsed in 1990 as well as USSR in 1991, Yugoslavia in 1991-92 and Czechoslovakia in 1993 did. Most of these events (except for the breakup of Yugoslavia) happened non-violently: alliances and countries were undermined by internal contradictions and could no longer exist as they were.
Now the conflict of interests of different countries more often turns into wars, which will lead to a second and larger wave of disintegration of our global civilization, but in violent way.

The world is divided into opposing alliances, different countries support those they consider to be their "allies" and challenge those they consider to be the "enemies", driving our civilization into a nuclear stalemate. Humanity is completely helpless in the presence of seemingly functioning international institutions like the UN.
The fact is that the UN is organized on democratic principles which in fact don’t work anymore. The UN is practically paralyzed as democratic countries in the United Nations Security Council (USA, UK, France) constantly block/ are blocked by authoritarian ones (Russia and China). The UN Security Council cannot even take a coherent decision on important issues because of the opposing views and goals of its members, let alone being able to enforce it. Without real force behind the decision (such as the police and penitentiary system which embody the ruling of the court in a state), any decision is simply a good wish or an expression of the "concerns" as the impotent UN constantly demonstrates.

World War III is already underway.

It goes on in the form of many internal and international armed conflicts or wars all over the world. And the number of such conflicts is increasing.

The Rule of Law in Armed Conflict Online Portal classifies all situations of armed violence that amount to an armed conflict under international humanitarian law. Today, it monitors more than 110 current armed conflicts, some of which last for more than 50 years:
- more than 45 armed conflicts are currently taking place throughout the Middle East and North Africa in the following countries and territories: Cyprus, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, Yemen, Western Sahara. This is the hottest region of the planet where only Israel has the nuclear weapons, but does not declare that.

- more than 35 armed conflicts exist currently in Africa: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan.

- more than 21 armed conflicts are happening now in Asia: Afghanistan, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, India and China. Pakistan, India and China possess nuclear weapons.

- more than 7 armed conflicts are underway in Europe: Ukraine, Russia, Transdniestria (Moldova), South Ossetia and Abkhazia (Georgia), Armenia, Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh). Russia possesses nuclear weapons and periodically threatens to use them.

- 8 armed conflicts are taking place in Mexico, Colombia, El Salvador and Ecuador. These states are engaged in military action against their drug cartels.

There are no culprits of the new and ongoing wars. All sides are right in their own way.

Each side of any conflict sees only its part of the truth or makes it up and justifies in the best way (including twisting the history) its actions.

Russia, for example, does not attack Ukraine for 2.5 years, the West helps Ukraine, but is much metering its help so that Mr. Putin does not use his nuclear weapons, Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023 because Israel oppressed the Palestinians, Israel killed about 40 thousand civilians in the Gaza Strip along with militants because it had to punish Hamas, Yemeni Houthis attack ships in the Gulf of Aden out of solidarity with Hamas and Palestine, China wants to regain Taiwan and is building the artificial islands in the South China Sea because it is its “ancestral” territory, Iran threatens Israel the retaliation for the murder of Ismail Haniyeh on its territory, Turkish President Erdogan threatens to send troops to the Gaza Strip to protect Palestinians, the US sends ships and planes to protect its ally Israel, while Palestine supporters in the US burn the American flag in Washington...

This complete chaos in the foreign policies of many states occurs at a time when there are big economic and political problems in their home states. Maybe it’s time for all of the listed countries to put their own homes in order, but, apparently, this is only possible through their weakening after coming wars.

There is no ideal state in the world.

So, is Mr. Trump really right with his “America first” slogan? Yes.

From the mouth of a great liar the words of ultimate truth can fly out sometimes. This does not mean that he will put his correct words into practice though. Slogans like “Germany first” for the Germans, “France first” for the French, etc., are already winning the elections in these countries.
This is the energy of disintegration in action. The Program has changed. Humanity is leaving the period of globalization.

From point of view of the state structure, the neutral and very democratic Switzerland seems to be the almost ideal state. It pursues an independent economic and international policy, can quickly mobilize a 2-3 million man army thanks to the interesting Swiss militia system, constantly holds national referendums unlike the US, and enjoys the great respect in the world. What is very interesting for me personally is that the Swiss took the US Constitution as the basis for their Constitution and slightly altered it. Yes, taxes in Switzerland are quite high, the Swiss also depreciate their currency through inflation, and their medicine is ineffective and very expensive...
Well, there is no beautiful, safe and inexpensive country in the world.

Wars and armed conflicts will multiply, destroying our civilization.

- The Russians with the tacit support of China, India and other allies, will continue to wage a war of conquest in Ukraine until their victory or a temporary truce, which will allow them to accumulate forces to continue this war.
The collective West still does not allow the Ukrainians to fire their weapons deep into Russian territory. There is an impression that the West is not interested in defeating the aggressor, but in killing as many Russians and Ukrainians as possible. Yes, the West obviously is really afraid of Mr. Putin’s use of his nuclear weapons... But Ukraine will not win the war in this way, and the undefeated Putin will move on.
Where? He cannot go to the east (Mongolia or Kazakhstan) because China will be against, so he may go to the west.
Now the Russians are increasing their efforts across almost the entire width of the front in Ukraine. If they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army over the next few months, they may then try to break through Suwałki Gap from Belarus to their Kaliningrad region through the territories of Poland and Lithuania during the re-election of the US President (November 2024-January 2025). It is very important for Mr. Putin to do this precisely during the period of presidential re-election in the US which lasts more than 2 months.

- Israel does not forgive the killing and kidnapping of its citizens, and the Palestinians (and therefore Hamas) despite everything have the moral support of many people in the world, so there will be no peace in the Gaza Strip. God willing, Mr. Erdogan won’t send Turkish troops there. Elderly people aren't usually very warlike, but there's no guarantee. If the Turks decide to be involved, a real hot World War will begin between all Muslims and the Jews with their allies. Iran, which doesn’t really want to fight yet despite its bellicose rhetoric, and many other countries will definitely intervene there.

- It’s interesting to observe how China (without fighting!) is already subjugating Russia economically and keeps patiently waiting for the body of its next enemy to “float by down the river.”
It looks like China will manage eventually to take over Taiwan without a war, just as it took Hong Kong, and no one stops it. Trump’s America will not fight for Taiwan, Mr. Trump has already said that. Apparently, the US will also not defend freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. «America first.»

- Other armed conflicts will multiply.
I would really like Ecuador and El Salvador to win their wars against drug cartels, and there is a chance for this to happen.
Mexico and Colombia will never defeat their drug traffickers because their elites have long been in the pay of drug cartels and both countries (Mexico for sure) will soon repeat the way of the ill-fated Republic of Haiti.