Exit from Brexit

Democracy is not a panacea, but just a tool. Every tool should be applied correctly.

The article was updated in December 2021.

On January 31, 2020 the United Kingdom completed its 47-year membership in the European Union. The country left the EU with an approved agreement - trade and customs agreements between the EU and the UK will remain in force until the end of 2020.

European politicians and British opponents of the Brexit say then that exit from the EU will turn Great Britain into a secondary country. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was confident that Britain would become "truly global".

It's been almost a year ago, but EU and GB still can't agree on how to coexist:
"After one week of intense negotiations in London, together with David Frost, we agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on level playing field, governance and fisheries", the EU’s top negotiator, Michel Barnier, said on December 4, 2020.

If there is a truth in an article or a book, it will remain actual for a long time.
The main idea of the article "Exit from Brexit" is that the British applied the democratic principles incorrectly and misrepresented the result of 2016 referendum. They really have not decided definitively whether to leave the EU or stay. In such a situation, a person (and a nation) is doomed to constantly look back and ask himself whether he did the right thing. Therefore, the British as the nation just stand still since 2016. And even a little worse. In pursuit of its reckless independence from the EU, Great Britain may find itself in a similar position due to the very possible secession of Scotland. Then Great Britain will be for a while just the union of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

As of July 2021, there was about £25bn of debt left to be paid by UK to EU, almost £18bn of which will be paid in the first five years.

October 31, 2019 is approaching fast. This is the date of prospective Brexit - Great Britain is going to leave European Union. The British and EU cannot come to any agreement of how to do that.
British newspapers for a good while are overfilled with emotional descriptions of the situation around Brexit like “chaos” and even “division of the nation”.
Theresa May’s government couldn’t make the acceptable agreement with EU about quitting. Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very determined to exit from EU on October 31, 2019 with no agreement at all. EU wants GB to leave by agreement and to pay for the Brexit (so called Brexit divorce bill) around 40 billion GBP. The negotiations between GB and EU have been stuck and even if the event would be delayed for some time, it wouldn’t resolve the problem. Great Britain is split and cannot cope with the challenge so far. Most likely, the country, EU and the world will face the consequences of GB quitting with no agreed plan, eventually. Nobody knows what to do.

The worst thing here is the fact that British citizens are divided into 2 almost equal parts regarding Brexit - around 52% of the British (17+ million) supported Brexit at the referendum in June 2016 and correspondingly 48% (16+ million) were against. Everything seemed to be correct at first glance, so the decision was declared later on behalf of the nation - “we want to leave EU”.

Exit from Brexit
Image from Pixabay.com

Let’s look closer at that “we” because here is the root of the Brexit problem. There was an erroneous seeing of the voting results from a common-sense point of view, because democratic procedure has omitted almost one third of the British - those, who didn’t come to vote. That was the beginning of “chaos and division of the nation”.
The electorate of 46,500,001 represents 70.8% of the population of 65,678,000 British in GB and Gibraltar, so around 13+ million citizens didn’t come to vote and there were also around 19 million of people in the country, who had no right to vote. Not to vote is also a result of voting and should be taken into consideration.

There are different kinds of problems in life of people or nations. Brexit is frankly a far-fetched problem, which the British created by and for themselves. It’s a result of distorted seeing and attempt to put the incorrect decision into life with predictable failure. How did a very reasonable nation contrive to get into such a simple and self-made (no Russians involved) trap?
A similar mistake has been done in October 2017 in Catalonia at referendum about the independence from Spain with alike and predictable result of getting stuck with the result. No wonder - 92% (but only 2+ million) of the voters said “yes” to Catalonian independence out of 7.5 million of Catalans, so around 5.5 million were actively or passively against. Neither in GB, nor in Catalonia such a little quantity of advocates of exit/separation cannot pass into quality and it is normal. However, the governments of GB and Catalonia are very much eager to exit/separate for some (maybe false) reason.

Nations think, speak and behave just like people - they grow, lie, boast, fight, believe, feign, hope, waste time and money, quarrel, resent, make silly decisions and conclusions, get married (enter alliances) and divorce (get out of the alliances) ...

Brexit is a divorce with all its attributes.
The main point in any divorce is to be sure 100% you really want to quit. The understanding of the fact that you will need to spend a long time and big money for your freedom is important also, but secondary. With a big group of people like a nation, it should be at least 2/3 in favor of quitting. The referendum in June 2016 really showed that the British were not sure about that, so nothing had to be done.

The real problem with Brexit is the misrepresentation of results of June 2016 referendum and it is the true cause of the “chaos and division”. GB as the whole hasn’t decided yet really to leave EU. Look at the figures: around 1/3 of citizens (17+ million) voted in favour of Brexit, around 1/3 (16+ million) ones were against and a little less than 1/3 (13+million) of voters didn’t come to vote. So out of three voting British 1 person wants to quit, 1 person doesn’t and 1 person doesn’t care, which means a very important thing - everything’s fine for him in EU. This is real division of the nation, which naturally brings chaos. Now the person who wants to leave tries to move the things forward, but 2 others are against, one actively and one passively. It’s like 1 person wants to move 2 other people of his own size to where he wants them to be. He cannot implement that physically. He just push “the opponent”, which resists, and the abstainer is just staying beside and watching them.

It is a very good thing for Great Britain to get stuck so hard. It is a sign for the British to stop and understand not just that the change may bring the good or the bad, but much more important - it’s not a right thing to do now, because the real majority of the voting citizen (29+millions or almost 2/3) do not want to leave EU. GB government just need to listen to the voices of the people - there are a lot of demands to carry out one more referendum about the same issue. They are right. It’s very correct thing to do now, just it is very important to define beforehand how to interpret the result correctly, because the government will intrude again. All the politicians are convinced they should “lead” the nation.

British cannot be sure about the correctness of Brexit now, because arguments “in favor” and “against” are almost equal by quantity, and the impressive rest says “I don’t know and don’t care”. It’s not clear, so the only correct action now is doing nothing and just waiting. Let time pass and maybe after a few years the British will vote by 3/4 for Brexit (or against). Most likely there will be no EU then, so the question will be resolved by itself and yet GB will not need to pay off the amount of around 40 billion GBP.

When (and if) the quantity turns into a quality, the miracle of mutation may occur and then this mutation will need to survive. New quality may bring a chaos or a new (another) order. It may bring a new order after initial chaos or chaos after initial order. Everything is relative and nobody knows the result. A chaos passes into an order and vice versa in a life cycle of everything. GB as the whole should wait until the situation becomes more clear. It’s time to talk now, not to act. But... The British have to calm down their rulers for that, who apparently have got the bit between their teeth. And before that the British have to understand all the above.

There is no need to hurry on. Time is not important comparing to making a correct decision. It’s better to wait, understand and then go the correct direction instead of emotional chaotic movements, which British nation shows already for 3 years.


P.S. Dear Reader! I am very much interested in your opinion on the subject of this article. Please, write a comment or ask a question if you want to clarify something.
Igor Chykalov
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