Peace Through the Escalation of War

On November 17, President Biden finally gave the permission to the Ukrainians to fire ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory. Mr. Biden wanted to send a signal to North Korea not to engage its soldiers in the war, and also, apparently, it was a response to Russia's increased strikes on Ukraine. The US as usual imposed some restrictions - ATACMS missiles should only hit the Kursk region of Russia.

And on November 19, the Ukrainians struck Russian military depots in Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, and on November 20 the military targets in Kursk region were hit by Storm Shadow missiles.
This was the crossing of Mr. Putin's penultimate (or final?) "red line" again. The Russians have recently changed their nuclear doctrine specifically to allow themselves to use nuclear weapons in such cases against the attacking country and against the country that supplied the weapons.

Mr. Putin simply had to respond to this attack with something.
And he responded: one powerful ballistic missile and 8 “weaker" missiles flew in the morning of November 21 in the direction of Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Some of them were intercepted, but a powerful missile still hit its target - an unnamed industrial facility. I assume it was the ”Yuzhmash” plant, one of the main military enterprises of Ukraine and the former Soviet Union. The destruction after this combined strike was generally minor, 2 people were injured in Dnipro and 26 more in Kryvyi Rih. The powerful missile was not equipped with nuclear warheads, but that is what it was designed for, so Mr. Putin's message is clear.
It is addressed not to Ukraine, but to the collective West.

What was it?

The Ukrainians initially thought it was a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), such as the RS-26 Rubezh, Topol or Yars. All of these are designed to deliver a warheads (including a nuclear ones) over long distances — about 3,400 miles.

Western experts doubted that it was an ICBM, but the next day Mr. Putin himself clarified that the strike on Dnipro was carried out by the newest Russian missile named «Oreshnik», a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with non-nuclear hypersonic equipment as a “response to attacks by British and American weapons.”
Mr. Putin also added that the Russians would use such weapons against targets in countries that allowed their weapons to be used against Russia and that modern air defense systems, “including American elements in Europe” allegedly could not intercept such missiles.

Mr. Putin appeased angry fans of the “Russian world” at home in that way and further raised the stakes in this war in response to the Biden’s administration’s permission for ATACMS.

What was it really?

On November 22, Austrian military expert Tom Cooper wrote that «Putin lied when explaining it for a 'new missile'. Sure, he's given it a new name: Oreshnik. However, it's no 'entirely new missile': rather a 'conventional version' of the RS-26 Rubezh. Rubezh was developed back in the 2010s, but never entered service: the project was shelved in 2017-2018. Arguably, during a test in 2017, it 'demonstrated' a range of 5,500-5,800km.»

Another authoritative source, the Institute for the Study of War, gave a similar assessment: “Russian forces conducted a complex strike against critical infrastructure and industrial enterprises in Dnipro City ... on the morning of November 21, that reportedly included a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile fired from Tambov Oblast, seven Kh-101 cruise missiles fired from Volgograd Oblast, and an experimental medium-range ballistic missile with reentry vehicles – likely a modified RS-26 “Rubezh” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) - fired from Astrakhan Oblast.”

What's interesting: many of the short-range missiles (300-600 miles) that Russia is constantly firing at Ukraine - Kalibr, Iskander, Kinzhal – are also capable of carrying a nuclear warheads, but they cost between 3 and 10 million USD each. «Oreshnik» missile (or modified RS-26 “Rubezh” IRBM) costs around $50 million, so Mr. Putin has spent $50 million+ on his intimidation campaign.
It might be worth it if the Americans revoke their permission for Ukraine to fire ATACMS missiles deep into Russia.

Do not cut off the tail by pieces.

It would never even occur to me to give a weapon to somebody and try to limit its use because this is senseless. If the weapon is given, it should be just used, of course, and this should have been done by the West 1000 days ago, or not to start "helping" at all. It is better to cut off the tail at once rather than piece by piece, if you have decided to cut it off.

I have already given the example of how justice was maintained in the prisons of the USSR.
If two inmates didn't like each other very much and quarreled all the time, they usually were given the knives and offered to finalize their matter. This was the law of highest justice in prison when both opponents were "right”. The collective West has never supplied Ukraine with the weapons it needed timely, not to mention equalizing the armament of the parties, so Ukraine had no chances to win this war even from this point of view, not counting its big internal problems.

It turns out that the criminals in the USSR were more just and had a better common sense than the leaders of many democratic countries. That’s why Mr. Putin has no respect for (actually, he despises) the West and its moral values. He considers the West to be pampered, weak, gutless, divided, too democratic, and incapable for any decisive action.
And he keeps on proving that.

Mr. Biden has already gone down in history as weak and indecisive US president who did not let Ukraine to win its just war. Many members of the US Congress believe that he deliberated too long each time before sending any aid or authorizing the use of American weapons. As a result, many Russians and Ukrainians died, correct timing was lost, Ukraine's infrastructure was destroyed, the war entered a protracted phase, and Russia’s aggression continues.

Mr. Putin has clearly beaten Mr. Biden in a battle of wills and we will soon find out what Mr. Trump can do. He promised to "stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours." This is a clear exaggeration of his capabilities.

Mr. Trump vs. Mr. Putin.

It’s clear that Mr. Putin is keen to make as much progress in Ukraine as possible and drive the Ukrainians out of Kursk region before negotiating a ceasefire with Mr. Trump.
The Ukrainians also understand the importance of holding on to part of Kursk region and do not want to give it up.

Overall, things are not going well for both warring sides: the Ukrainians are short of soldiers, and Mr. Putin is already sending North Koreans to the Kursk region, who apparently cost him less than his Russian mercenaries.
However, Mr. Putin still has money to pay to his soldiers well for the fulfillment of his dream while the Ukrainian elites rely on the Constitution and pure patriotism of their people which is drying up.

So, on November 19-20, Ukraine and the West have crossed one more Mr. Putin's "red line." There have been a few of them since the war began.
Mr. Putin sent his answer in the form of a powerful missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge. The West and Ukraine, apparently, must also respond with escalation since other instruments do not work. A horrible end is better than endless horror.

Unfortunately, the only way out of this war is through the escalation of it, because otherwise Ukraine will lose part of its territory and, together with the peace-loving West, will still face a continuation of the war after some time. The Russian leaders respect only physical force and the ability to use it (like everyone else, by the way). Real peace with Russia is possible only through real actions (including military ones, like Turkish president Erdogan demonstrated in 2020) after which it is possible to be heard.
Mr. Putin has made a big mistake by starting this war, but the collective West, led by the divided US under the leadership of the weak and old Democrat Mr. Biden made its own mistake - it missed a great opportunity to defeat Russia by the hands of Ukrainians. Then relations with China would be quite different.

All hope of Ukraine (and the West!) now should be on the reckless authoritarian D. Trump at the head of the US from January 20, 2025.
He has various instruments of pressure on Russia: increasing support for Ukraine, tightening sanctions against Russia and countries that avoid complying with these sanctions, reducing the price of hydrocarbons in the world with the help of the Saudis...
Mr. Trump could also force Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia by promising to cut off its military aid and putting pressure on his European NATO allies to do the same “in the name of peace”…

But the main difference between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden is emotionality and inflated ego. Even Mr. Trump’s age will not influence his decisions here. Mr. Trump may also use military methods if his ego is hurt, nobody knows... So anything can happen if Mr. Putin (I think, rather, Ukraine) angers Mr. Trump with the intransigence in the matter of the peace he promised to all mankind.

The stakes in this war are rising.

Mr. Putin had to respond with something to the Ukrainians' attack on Russia with Western weapons, and he did. Now it is Ukraine's (and the West's) turn to respond to him with some actions.

Military expert Tom Cooper says that after the «Oreshnik» missile had arrived in Dnipro City «the Biden admin called Moscow and announced it the change of policy re. ATACMS - in advance».
Well, maybe, but I couldn’t verify this information in any way. However, if this is true, it means that Mr. Putin has once again succeeded in intimidating Mr. Biden and the West, and we will not hear about Ukraine striking deep into Russia with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles until at least January 20, 2025.

And then it will be time for Mr. Trump to speak and act.
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Nov 28, 2024. Update to the article:

It seems that President Biden did not revoke his permission for Ukraine to strike targets in Russia's Kursk region by ATACMS missiles.
Institute for the Study of War states that «… on November 25 ... Ukrainian forces also struck the Khalino Airfield and fields near Kursk City with several ATACMS missiles and drones.»

Judging by Mr. Putin's reaction, that was true.
On November 28, Mr. Putin threatened to target 'decision-making centres in Kyiv' with new Oreshnik IRBM missiles at the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Astana (the capital city of Kazakhstan).