Sanctions “from Hell” or “from Heaven”?

Last week the US finally imposed sanctions on Russian «Gazprombank» and its branches in various countries, through which Russia receives hard currency for the sold gas and finances its war in Ukraine.
President Biden decided to slam the door loudly before leaving.

Great Britain is also imposing the "biggest sanctions package" against Russia's “shadow fleet,” targeting 30 vessels.
”We are determined to ensure that both the ships, the enablers of those ships thwarting European and UK sanctions are hurt at this time,” UK foreign minister D. Lammy said a few days ago.

After reading such news, a feeling of deep satisfaction emerges from the correctness and fairness of what is happening. Russia has unleashed an aggressive war in Ukraine and is getting what it deserves. It seems to be hit with another round of "sanctions from hell." However, this has already happened last year and the year before... The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost 3 years, and sanctions “from hell” have not yet been able to destroy the Russian economy.
Why?

Ariel Cohen, a “Forbes” contributor, has answered this question well with the title of his article: «New sanctions against Gazprombank: too little, too late.»

The same can be said about sanctions against the Russian "shadow fleet."

Is the collective West blind, stupid or corrupt?

I rarely translate articles from other authors, but I wanted to make an exception for this excellent, short, clear and very professional article by Andrii Klymenko «What's wrong with UK sanctions against Russia's 'shadow fleet'».

Andrii Klymenko is Ukrainian journalist, a Head of the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and Editor-in-Chief of the BlackSeaNews.

The article briefly and clearly shows the blindness and helplessness of Ukraine's democratic allies in the West, who seem to want to punish Russia for its aggression, but in fact only bring democratic chaos to the simple issues they could solve easily themselves just by abandoning their democratic delusions.

For example, is it unfair or illogical to hand over to Ukraine frozen in the West Russian assets (around $320 billion)? Or to really close off the Russians' ability to trade oil, using the so-called "shadow fleet" that everyone in the West seems so concerned about recent times? Is the collective West blind, stupid or corrupt?

In an old Ukrainian fable, animals judged a pike for constant aggression and, as punishment, on the advice of the fox - a friend of the pike - decided to drown it in a river.
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Andrii Klymenko,
A Head of the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and Editor-in-Chief of the BlackSeaNews.


November 27, 2024

The UK has introduced a sanctions package against three dozen more vessels of Russia's "shadow fleet". But these are decorative actions instead of global decisions. And this causes a sarcastic smile.

Of course, basically it is good that the UK and US sanctions against tankers have begun. But the fact is that these sanctions set a ban on ships that transport Russian oil from entering their ports. But they have not entered there and do not plan to. Russians have also been banned from using the services of British insurance companies. But they are using the services of Russian insurance companies, as well as those of India and China which do not support the anti-Russian sanctions regime.

Another point: we must understand that in fact there is no "shadow fleet" which is invisible to other countries. This was invented by our American friends who were afraid that world oil prices would go up, and their prices for gasoline and diesel would rise. The convenient and mysterious cliche about the “shadow fleet” was picked up by the world media and it got covered with false details. In particular, that no one sees the “shadow fleet” because these vessels allegedly turn off their AIS transmitters.
This is a lie. They do indeed manipulate AIS transmitters, but in any international straits, in particular the Bosphorus, the Suez Canal, as well as Kattegat, Skagerrak, the Great and Little Belt which connect the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic Ocean, in the English Channel, no one will let through any vessel with a switched off AIS transmitter. That's why everyone can see them perfectly well.

That is why good gestures from the UK authorities, as well as from the US, are not important to me, because I see, for example, how 100-105 tankers go out from Baltic Sea every month, as they did before. They keep carrying Russian oil as they did before. Russia keep receiving money for it as it did before... And there is no reduction in this flow because of the sanctions against tankers.

It is important to understand that today oil sales are the main source of financing the war for Russia. This is the largest part of foreign currency that Russia receives from India, China, Singapore, Malaysia and African countries. For this money, Russia buys everything it needs, from microchips to optical devices. This is a kind of “perpetuum mobile” of financing the war. And it is just this which must be stopped, otherwise the war will never stop.

In order for the restrictions to be not an imitation, but an effective mechanism against Russia, we must raise the issue of a radical renewal of the global sanctions policy with our friends, allies and partners. And here we must proceed from the fact that international maritime law, free trade, freedom of transit are all concepts of peacetime. And for the period of war in Europe which Russian Federation is waging against Ukraine, it is necessary to partially stop some norms of maritime law and international law in general. What is needed now is brutal realism.

What needs to be done to stop oil shipping by sea? Ban Russia from using the straits.

This question has been raised many times, including a month ago, when the Ukrainian president met in Reykjavik, in particular, with the Danish officials. The resolution of that summit noted that Russia’s “shadow fleet” should not be allowed to transport oil because Russia is financing the war in Ukraine with this money. And this is true. What’s next? A declaration that they will act in compliance with international maritime law? But that doesn't work.

What does the flow of Russian crude oil look like, for example?
About 60% comes from Russian ports on the Baltic Sea which is about 10-12 million tons per month. 20% of such oil comes from the ports of Black Sea and another 20% does from the ports of Far East and North. Based on these statistics, that measures must be taken in the Baltic Sea to stop this flow. And there is a hope that something can be done about it since this sea is controlled by our friendly countries, members of the EU and/or of NATO. And the English Channel is controlled by Great Britain and France.

Are you afraid to block everything at once? Well, there are about 30% of tankers that are included in the “black lists” of international port control memorandums (Paris, Tokyo ones, because of the technical problems). Tell them you are banning those tankers from using the strait to prevent accidents. And then they will have to go around the UK, which will take many extra days and make transit more expensive for Russia.
We need more creativity and everything will work. I am sure that it will. But the question is when.
Meanwhile, tankers with bloody oil are moving. And earning bloody dollars, rupees and yuans.
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This mysterious “liberal democratic” soul.

It seems so simple - to prohibit Russia from using the straits. At least in the Baltic Sea, which is fully “controlled” by Ukraine’s Western friends. Or give to Ukraine not only the interest on frozen Russian assets in European banks, but all $280 billion. Let the Ukrainians buy their weapons and thus there is no need to spend Western taxpayers' money. Let the Russians pay for their aggression.

However, this has not been done for 2.5 years of war despite everyone is very much “concerned” about it.
Mr. Putin is right considering the West as pampered, weak, gutless, divided, too democratic, and incapable for any decisive action. I can understand well “the mysterious Russian soul,” but I can’t understand the even more mysterious “liberal democratic” one.

The collective West has a complete superiority in money (even holds frozen Russian funds), weapons, armies, structure (US bases all over the world, NATO), technologies and it loses game after game to bullish Mr. Putin. It means that the West is really blind, stupid, divided and a part of it is on the Kremlin’s payroll.
Provocateurs like Mr. Putin are very much needed to dispel illusions. For everyone - Europeans, Americans, Ukrainians... And Russians, too.

Perhaps, the selfish and emotional businessman D. Trump in the rank of US President will shake up the Western impotent swamp and bring at least some practicality to the actions of America and its allies in the international arena. Then the egos of Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin collide, sparks will fly and there may be a fire. Nobody knows who will burn in it — Russia, Ukraine or the US.

I think Ukraine will be the first. It has not built the independent strong state during 33 years and therefore always was a toy in the hands of rich and independent nations, finally having fallen a prey to Russia.


P.S. I wonder how the collective West is going to counteract China which is much wiser than Russia?