It's Not Hard to See the Future

Everyone needs a strategic vision. You just have to draw a line
through 2 points (in the past and in the present) and it will point you
to the future. It's hard to choose the right points though.

Image by author

Anyone can see (or foresee) the future, it’s not very hard. Moreover, you probably already did that, especially if the prognosis was not about yourself personally since the emotions interfered with objectivity.

Also, everyone can see the complete situation only from the outside. That is why it is easier to get the right advice from a stranger than from your acquaintance who is "inside" your situation. A stranger is "outside" and can judge objectively and correctly, seeing the whole picture and not being interested in your issue personally.

And one more thing. For seeing the future of whatever, you shouldn’t look at the details, which usually are very numerous and distracting, but at the trend, i.e., the direction in which an object of observation is moving.

For example, tell me what is the future of someone who drinks a glass of whisky a day? Yes, two glasses after a while. Then there will be likely three glasses a day, deteriorating health and death if he/she doesn't stop somewhere in the middle of the road. Whether the person comes to admitting the alcoholism or not is at least 50/50, but the undermined health can be definitely predicted because the direction of movement (from the past through the present to the future) is clear.

Is LGBT going to be a norm in the future? Yes, and that is why.

Relatively recently (since the 1990s), the term LGBT has emerged globally to describe various modern sexual minorities: lesbians, gays, bisexuals, and transgenders. The first widely used term was “homosexual”, but now it is left mostly for the science. The term “gay” was popular in the US in the 1970s. From the point of view of sexual majority (supporters of traditional sex between a man and a woman), LGBT people are abnormal and should be treated. And they really are being treated.

Here the trend or direction of movement of the humanity, in my opinion, can be seen very well.

With all my inner misunderstanding of the same-sex love, I can clearly see the following: the same-sex marriages have never been legalized in any country in entire history of mankind. The lecherous Roman Emperors, concupiscent rajas in India with their "Kama Sutra”, all dynasties of Chinese emperors, European cruel kings in the dark Middle Ages and later, rich Turkish sultans – no one could do that. This is the first huge (and surely right) point, which is in the past of humanity.

Now the second point is in the present: the first same-sex legal marriage took place in Minnesota in 1971 and the first law providing the marriage equality between same-sex and opposite-sex couples took effect in Netherlands on April 1, 2001.
It’s funny to think that democracy easily did what the slave-owning and feudal systems couldn’t do during millennia.

Since 2001, the LGBT community has been evolving relatively victoriously in the world and fighting for its right to exist more (Western Europe, United States) or less (Middle East, Asia) successfully. In the US, the availability of legally recognized same-sex marriage expanded from Massachusetts in 2004 to all 50 states in 2015 through various court rulings, state legislation, and direct popular votes.

The fact that many people (myself including) find hard to admit is: the support for the same-sex marriages in the world has grown tremendously over the past 50 years. I understand that this is not because of the democracy has given to sex minorities the freedom they needed to express themselves, but simply because the more and more gays, lesbians, etc., emerged in different countries with different geographic and political climate. Gallup found that in the US nationwide public support for same-sex marriage reached from 27% in 1996 to 70% in 2021. Can you see a trend?

Sometimes quantity can transit into quality and LGBT people have begun to get to the high official positions in the US, and the Republicans noticed that. For example, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is a lesbian. One of the 2020 US presidential candidates of the Democratic Party and the current transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg is a gay.

Republican Party has always been much tougher on the LGBT issue than Democrats, but here they had to change their point of view: 55% of the Republicans admitted in 2021 that same-sex marriages should be recognized by law for the first time in their party’s history.

These two points (one in the past and one in the present) seem to be quite distinctive, that is why the correct conclusion here is that humanity is moving (mutating?) towards LGBT and thus it is useless to fight the planetary tendency. In a number of years LGBT will become a new norm and people like me (pure traditionalists) will be considered abnormal, so let’s not treat the LGBT guys now and then, please God, they won't treat us when they become a majority.
"Abnormality" is very relative. It can be distinguished only as the opposition to "normality", while normality is the way most people speak and act at a given time in a given place.

Here we have to admit that there is some force (people call it God or Absolute, I call it the Program) that guides humanity and influences every person individually. It is easy to determine the gender of the characters in paintings of masters made 100-200 years ago. Now it is much harder, but it wasn’t done by political forces, democracy or "dissolution of morals". In their appearance, the genders have become so close that they are almost indistinguishable, men and women dress and behave almost identically. This is the Program at work, which we all live in and do not feel it.

The US budget deficit will grow by 19 trillion dollars through 2033. Various US governments consistently spend more money than the country earns. What will happen to the country in the future?

Congressional Budget Office informed on February 15, 2023 that the US national debt will increase by 19 trillion USD over the next decade. CBO added 3 trillion USD to their previous forecast because of the rising costs for interest payments, veterans’ health care, retiree benefits and the military.

Congressional Budget Office is a federal non-partisan and quite credible agency which provides budget information as well as its economic forecasts to the US Congress. Both US major parties criticize the Congressional Budget Office for its estimates and projections, however economists and other academics consider that "the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.”

How does the Congressional Budget Office create its forecasts?
They choose distinctive figures in the past, estimate relevant figures in the present, and draw a line into the future, which shows the direction of development of events. Of course, something can interfere with the forecast. For example, the Republicans may not agree to raise the national debt ceiling, and then the federal government will go bankrupt in July-August 2023. However, most likely the parties will agree on the issue beforehand (CBO also had to take that into the consideration), although this only puts off the bankruptcy into the future, but then the forecast will come true and the country will successfully incur 19 trillion USD of additional debt.

Likewise, the warning of famous billionaire-investor Ray Dalio will come true sometime later: "Don’t have debt rise faster than income because debt burdens will eventually crush you".

So what will happen to the US in the future? The bankruptcy of the federal government which may occur sooner (if parties disagree on the new debt ceiling) or later (if parties agree on it) with the subsequent breakup of the country into separate states just because the «debt rises faster than income» for quite a while.

The New York Times presented a timeline “Total budget deficits or surpluses, as a share of gross domestic product” and included there the time of presidency of the last US presidents. The graph shows that only Bill Clinton’s administration somehow managed to bring the country into surplus, while after (and before) him all the presidents from both major parties left their service with budget deficits, i.e. the country was constantly earning less than it was spending. Thus, the main reason (and the guarantee) for the future collapse is short-sightedness and inability of the US governments to effectively manage the national economy.

The economy of a country is bigger concept (macrolevel) compared to the economy of a single family or a business (microlevel), but all of them are unions of people and arranged in the same way. Both levels are governed by the same law - revenues must exceed expenses otherwise the union will fall apart. There is even a saying: «Stretch your legs according to your coverlet.”

Any family or business in dire financial straits cuts costs and tries to increase incomes, which is correct and quite obvious. However, the divided US governments do the opposite, blindly following their parties interests, and cannot see the national forest behind their partisan trees. Both parties demand a reduction of the national debt while in opposition, and both seek to raise the debt limit while in power.

There are necessary and unnecessary expenses, and the far-seeing government has to distinguish between the two.
The US national debt is now over 31 trillion USD. All post-9/11 wars in the Middle East have cost the US taxpayers over 8 trillion dollars. The Bush, Obama and Trump administrations spent this money for restoration and maintenance of peace and democracy during 20 years in the Middle East, in Afghanistan, in particular. But the Afghans didn't ask for that, and as soon as President Biden withdrew the troops (which was correctly done from my subjective point of view), the power in the country was immediately seized by Taliban.
It turns out that America has spent 8 trillion USD on the illusion of its mission to bring the democracy to the world.

Illusions are expensive. Now the Russian people are paying dearly in Ukraine for Mr. Putin's illusion as the main "gatherer of Russian lands" and restorer of greatness of the Russian nation.

Projection from US national debt to the world debt.

Similarly, one can see the future of the world economy by drawing an imaginary line not in time, but in space - from the US economy to the world economy. Incurring debts is bad. The US national debt is growing all the time, it is already more than 31.4 trillion USD and the US fits well the global trend.

The world's debt is also growing steadily and at the beginning of 2023 it is around 300 trillion USD. That number is about 349% of global gross domestic product, and the equivalent of $37,500 of debt for every single person in the world.

Wikipedia states, that the global debt has grown by approximately 6% per year during the period from 2015 to 2021. This is a trend.
Wikipedia also gives correct explanation, in my opinion, of this trend:

The fast growing debt is a consequence of the current financial system that leads to an unbalanced and uncontrolled growth of money and debt. There is a distorted balance between public and private interests with insufficient democratic accountability, according to a Dutch government report. A high level of debt makes the economy unstable with risks of economic crises. The consequences of recurrent crises have been described as unfair because a disproportionate share of the benefits during a financial boom goes to the financial sector, while the general public bears the costs during the subsequent bust in the form of bancruptcies, bank bailouts, unemployment, and home evictions.

In this way you can see the future of different aspects of life and activity in different countries and throughout our civilization. Trends can be seen. It is important although to identify correctly the distinctive points in the past and in the present and then you will see the future because the future is being created here and now.

Disintegration is the main theme of the Program for humanity now.

It is clear to me that the people have built an overly unwieldy, complex and interdependent civilization consisting of economically divided into rich minority and poor majority inefficient countries with lots of internal conflicts. It is dysfunctional and has to disintegrate.

All things are interconnected and all events are just the consequences of some major causes. The main theme of the Program for humanity now is Disintegration. Everything in our civilization - from traditional family and businesses at microlevel to different countries and international organizations like UN at macrolevel - disintegrates. This disintegration is almost unnoticeable at microlevel, but we spoke about strong global LGBT tendency earlier as the example. The disintegration at macrolevel is well-known for a while under the name “deglobalization” and recently became very noticeable due to coronavirus pandemic.

Human civilization has reached its peak of integration/globalization, I think, in 1950s-1980s (establishing the United Nations Organization in 1945 and UNESCO, WHO, NATO, GATT/WTO, etc., later) and entered a period of disintegration in early 1990s (a breakdown of Warsaw Treaty Organization and USSR, both in 1991).

If there is a beginning, there will be an end. We are watching the Big Disintegration at work now.

P.S. Dear Reader! I am very much interested in your opinion on the subject of this article. Please, write a comment or ask a question if you want to clarify something.
Igor Chykalov
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