War in the Middle East Expands

On December 8, 2024, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria collapsed, having held power for 20 years, the last 9 years with the help of Russia.
Russia could do nothing this time, probably because all the troops are involved in Ukraine.

On November 27, 2024, rebel forces launched an offensive and captured several major cities including the capital Damascus with a little resistance. Bashar al-Assad's regime fell, and he and his family fled to Russia. Russian troops began to leave Syria: Mr. Putin withdrew part of its military contingent by plane from the Khmeimim airbase and several Russian warships left the naval base in Tartus.

Interestingly, Russia seemed to have asked Turkey to help withdraw its troops from Syrian territory which, in my opinion, points to who was the main mastermind behind the coup.

On December 8, Israel moved its troops into the UN buffer zone between the two countries (the Golan Heights) «to ensure Israel's security.»

On December 10, Mohammed al-Bashir was appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria. He will lead the transitional government until March 1, 2025.

Unknown Syria.

I have never been to Syria and have not studied it specifically, although I periodically see information about this country and know in general terms what is happening there.

My personal experience of communicating with Syrians is limited to a few conversations with the emigrants - one in the US, another one in Turkey. Both were quite pleasant people to talk to, both guardedly condemned the Bashar al-Assad's regime, my Turkish friend Wisam purposely spoke English to his 10-year-old son and was very pleased with the communication of our children.
Once again I come to the conclusion that ordinary citizens of different countries seem quite normal people in personal interaction, but for some reason they allowed their rulers - usually privileged idiots and often just criminals - to rob their countries, oppress and even kill their fellow citizens, start wars, etc.

Bashar al-Assad's war against his own people.

Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria with a dictatorial hand for nearly 20 years, taking power from his father, Hafez al-Assad. Al-Assad Jr. brutally suppressed any internal opposition during his rule, practicing torture, imprisonment and summary executions, bombing Syrian cities to combat opposition forces, and even repeatedly used chemical weapons even against civilians.

The collective democratic West turned a blind eye to all this, while Russia always supported the “legitimate government” of Syria in every possible way. As a result of such genocidal policies of the Al-Assad regime, hundreds of thousands of Syrians have died, and millions fled the country.

War of all against all.

Syria is ethnically and religiously very diverse and has long been in a civil war of “all against all”.

Here is a list of the local armed conflicting parties that remained after the collapse of the Assad regime:
- Turkish-friendly HTS-led Opposition Forces. Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organization, formed in 2017 as a merger between several armed factions, including Al-Qaeda. HTS had an estimated 6,000–15,000 members in 2022. It won over the government troops together with other Syrian opposition groups and now controls most of the country.
In 2017, HTS permitted Turkish troops to patrol North-West Syria as part of a ceasefire, and since then HTS’s pragmatic part around its current leader - Abu Muhammed al-Julani - has fought alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.

- Turkish-backed SNA (Syrian National Army, previously the Free Syrian Army (FSA)). It is a coalition of armed Syrian groups. The SNA which includes 25-70 thousand fighters, mostly consists of Arabs and Syrian Turkmens. It was officially established in 2017 under the auspices of Turkey which provided funding, training, and military support.

- SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) is a Kurdish-led coalition of the US-backed left-wing ethnic militias and rebel groups. SDF is founded in 2015, amounted to about 100 thousand fighters (as of 2021) and claims that its mission is creating a secular, democratic and federalized Syria. No other Syrian force wants the federalization. The SDF is opposed by Turkey for its alleged links to Kurdistan Workers' Party which is recognized a terrorist group by Turkish authorities.

- There are also some smaller unidentified opposition groups.

Many local armed groups are backed by major global players:
- The US maintains a military base in the south of the country (Al Tanf Deconfliction Zone).
- Turkey sent its troops into northern Syria in August 2016, where they remain to this day.
- Israel occupied two thirds of Syrian Golan Heights in 1967 and then annexed the territory in 1981 which was unrecognized by the international community. On December 8, 2024 Israel occupied the remaining one third of the area.
- In 2017, Russia leased the Khmeimim airbase and the naval base in Tartus from Syria for 49 years, and it is now unknown whether the new government will allow the Russians to use them.
- Iran supplied instructors and weapons to Assad's army and used Syrian territory to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The following diagram shows all the participants in the mess in Syria:

Has Turkey outsmarted everyone?

It seems that Mr. Erdogan is the one who directed the rebels to this victorious performance.

Some experts say, the rebel attack on Aleppo was planned for mid-October, but it began «only after Ankara's efforts to normalize ties with the Assad regime were rebuffed.» Then President Erdogan gave his approval and perhaps did not expect himself that the Assad regime would fall within 11 days.

Thus, Assad and Putin lost Syria, Erdogan has won it for now. The new Syrian government is being created on the basis of HTS and/or SNA, so Turkey will be determining Syria's internal and external priorities. However, all sides are now trying to take advantage of the Assad's regime fall and the Russians’ departure to strengthen their positions in Syria. So for the long-suffering Syrians, this is not the end yet.

Turkey vs. Israel in Syria?

I have already written that humanity faces great trials ahead: increasing man-made and natural disasters, diseases/viruses/pandemics, extreme weather, polluted environment, collapse of international organizations and different states (both democratic and authoritarian), shortages of water, food, energy and, of course, wars.

World War III is already underway and it expands. This is not one big war, but a few large and small military conflicts around the world.

The biggest current conflict, the war in Ukraine, will probably soon be suspended for a while under Mr. Trump's mediation and on Russia's terms. First, because everyone is tired of this war, except Mr. Putin, who can throw more and more Russian "meat" into the fight. And secondly, it is easier for Mr. Trump to side with the Russians, following the long-standing American policy of not engaging in direct confrontation with a nuclear Russia. Mr. Trump will put pressure on European allies to sacrifice Ukraine's interests "in the name of peace" because Ukraine is clearly losing the war.
“Victors are not judged, and the vanquished are executed” - this has always been and will always be the case with humans, no matter how much Western democrats talk about the “might of the right” and the UN Charter.


The war in Ukraine may well be followed by a similar full-scale conflict in Syria if the numerous Syrian armed groups fail to reach an agreement among themselves and Turkey lacks the strength to supervise. And the worst thing which may occur in Syria - if the interests of Turkey (which currently keeps its troops in the north) and Israel (its troops are currently in the southwest) intersect there.

On December 8, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu already declared while standing on the Israeli-Syrian border: «We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border», and on December 10, “peace-loving” Israel launched “preventive” airstrikes on the territory of the sovereign Syrian Arab Republic and its fleet with the aim «at taking out advanced weaponry that could fall into the hands of hostile elements following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime.»

Apparently, the chief prosecutor of International Criminal Court (ICC) Karim Khan was right in May 2024, having sent a request to the Court for an arrest warrant for Prime Minister of Israel B. Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip.
I wonder, why the ICC has not yet issued an arrest warrant for Turkish President R. Erdogan for Turkish occupation of northern Syria since 2016?