Ukraine Enters a Perfect Storm. The EU Is Next

America has stopped its aid to Ukraine and refused to protect Europe earlier. Mr. Trump has created chaos among his allies with his words and actions and greatly emboldened his opponents. It can be said that the concept of a “collective West” no longer exists thanks to Mr. Trump. Russia is very happy about an unexpected ally and says that Mr. Trump’s foreign policy "largely aligns with our vision."

Nevertheless, Mr. Trump sees the world around him in this way and acts accordingly. He is guided by his “good” intentions (making America great again along with making himself even more famous and rich) and has every right to do so. Another question is how former friends and allies from Europe will react and treat Mr. Trump and the US, but he does not care much about this.

On the other hand, the EU has lost its subjectiveness in geopolitics, relying on the US and NATO in everything since the 2000s, while “independent” Ukraine never had it, and therefore they easily succumb to Mr. Putin’s manipulations and Mr. Trump’s whims.

Ukraine now seems to enter a perfect storm: it has to accept the Trump-Putin "peace" (which is almost a capitulation, something that might have been done 3 years ago) or Mr. Trump will retaliate by cutting off (has already cut off) the military aid and intelligence. Ukraine is in turmoil now, and Europe is feverishly looking for ways to replace the American aid, but so far things have not gone beyond hugs and promises. Many people in Ukraine and Europe are upset now, they are confused, rushing back and forth, whispering and all this was arranged by the irrepressible Mr. Trump. He is simply a genius of provocation.

I already wrote that provocation strengthens true relationships/unions and destroys false ones. That is why provocations exist in life — for testing. For example, I quit smoking about 30 years ago. You can smoke a pack of cigarettes in my presence, but I will not keep you company. This means that such provocation only confirms my self-confidence in that sense.
So, now Ukraine and EU will have to become stronger or collapse.

Against the backdrop of general mess, Switzerland (not part of the EU), China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and some other countries look surprisingly solid and stable. They are not rushing back and forth like the rest, not trying to guess what Mr. Trump is going to do next and not fawning over him. This is how adults look in kindergarten. These countries simply know their worth, behave correctly and therefore are subjects of geopolitics, and not objects of someone else’s manipulations and provocations.

A stubborn, belligerent mule from the peace party.

Many in the world did not understand why there was a scandal in the White House on February 28, when Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance clashed with the Ukrainian president on live television. Mr. Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg explained the essence of the conflict in the best way: it turns out that the American president and vice president decided publicly to hit "a mule with a two-by-four across the nose" to get the attention. As I understand it, President Zelensky (he is apparently this “mule”) was deliberately “hit across the nose” and kicked out of the White House so that he would not undermine the peace process initiated by Mr. Trump. It's a pity that Mr. Trump can't or won't do the same to Mr. Putin.

President Zelensky really decided to back down a bit after this conflict and indirectly apologized. He said that he is personally ready "to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts" and to sign an agreement on Ukrainian mineral resources at any time. It turns out that he apologized for what he got hit "with a two-by-four across the nose". It is humiliating, Mr. Zelensky has to understand this himself, but in politics with Mr. Trump's involvement this is almost the norm.

I think that Mr. Zelensky himself has realized that:
1. Mr. Trump will easily sacrifice him (and the interests of Ukraine) just to get the Nobel Peace Prize.
2. Mr. Zelensky personally is now a “stubborn mule” for the US and Russia, which has long been calling for election of a new president of Ukraine, despite the obvious impossibility of holding it during the war.

Ideally, Mr. Zelensky does not need to apologize and ask for help from the US anymore because it will still end in a fiasco. It will be very difficult for Ukraine to fight without the American aid, but the sage and poet of the East Omar Khayyam once said that “you better be alone than with the inappropriate.” Mr Trump is clearly "inappropriate" guy for the Ukrainians, but Ukraine has put itself in a losing situation long ago by acting incorrectly. That is why now Ukrainians can "choose" only between the bad and the very bad. It could not be otherwise.

I remembered that in the spring of 2019 when former president P. Poroshenko and the current president V. Zelensky met in the battle for the presidency of Ukraine, the latter positioned himself as a representative of the “party of peace” and criticized Mr. Poroshenko as a representative of the “party of war.” Mr. Zelensky keeps fighting the Russians from 2022 and now he has to refuse the Trump-Putin “peace” imposed on Ukraine and, therefore, becomes himself a representative of the “party of war”. Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Zelensky for the fact that he "... is not ready for Peace." Life is full of irony.

By the way, somebody from Mr. Trump's entourage recently contacted Ukrainian opposition leaders just in case (perhaps with the aim of eventually replacing the intractable Mr. Zelensky with one of them, following Mr. Putin's recommendations for re-election). To Mr. Poroshenko’s credit and contrary to my established opinion about the Ukrainian elites, he said that he opposed Mr. Trump’s demands for wartime elections.
Bravo.

Ukraine and Europe need to act independently without looking at the US.

Now Ukraine, the EU and other current US allies have two options: they can adapt to the new unpredictable leader of the all-powerful America (as the experienced British Prime Minister K. Starmer is doing), or they can turn their backs on him and start solving their problems on their own. Mr. Zelensky's face in the Oval Office showed that he really wanted to do the latter. That's right. Boorishness and meanness should not triumph, because the consequences will always be bad.

I already wrote that Ukraine should find money or take it away from its oligarchs, create its own weapons, buy foreign weapons globally, and start paying all its soldiers really well.

The EU needs all its 26 countries to equally recognize the mortal threat posed by Russia and to start acting together. And for this, it is necessary not to be afraid of cleansing itself: to exclude Hungary (currently the 27th EU country) which constantly sabotages EU decisions and pursues an openly pro-Russian policy. Excluding Hungary will only raise the EU's authority and make it easier for the bloc to make decisions. Slovakia can also be offered to leave the bloc voluntarily for the same reason. If the EU doesn't like the reaction, Slovakia can also be excluded.
The EU, like every proper union, must be a union of like-minded people.

France as the leader of the EU.

French President Mr. Macron, after several unsuccessful attempts to convey his opinion to D. Trump, has made a rather tough address to the nation on March 5. He stated that Russia has become a threat to Europe and that European countries will have to take their defense into their own hands without relying on the US. To this end, France is even ready to revise its nuclear doctrine and extend its nuclear defense to European allies.

It was a very correct and bold statement, although experts say that 290 French nuclear warheads can hardly protect the territory of the EU, so it will rather be just a deterrent factor. By comparison, China, Russia and the US have at least 1,000 thermonuclear warheads deployed to defend their territories. Mr. Macron's proposal certainly has other technical and financial complications, but the main issue is the lack of time. All this should have been done yesterday.

Also, Mr. Macron is not very popular in France: his support among the French has dropped to a new low of 21 percent in January 2025.
It is interesting to observe how literally all the leaders of different countries 1) are not very popular in their homeland and 2) strive to actively prove themselves in the international arena, and not in their domestic policy (which is actually what they were elected for.)

So, is France the new leader of the EU and Mr. Macron is the leader of France? Yes, maybe, let’s see, but only for two years. The next presidential elections in France will take place in early 2027, but the current president cannot run for a third consecutive term, so the country's course may change.

Democracy loses to authoritarianism in speed and consistency.

All states have become very cumbersome and unwieldy. They act very slowly, the results of the government’s activity (as well as inactivity) are hardly be determined and, in addition, in my opinion, it is simply impossible to manage to create something necessary and important in 4-5 years, especially in conditions of constant opposition from the ideological opponents. Democracy loses to authoritarianism in speed and consistency.

As an extreme example from modern history: since the end of World War II Italy has had 66 governments, at an average of one every 1.14 years. What can be completed in 1.14 years?

In the US, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have been successfully cancelling many of each other's decrees and repeatedly taking their country into/out of various international organizations. This is ridiculous and clearly doesn’t “make America great again.”

There is no such mess in authoritarian countries. Authoritarian rulers like Mr. Putin or Xi Jinping remain in power for a long time and lead their countries to their vision for decades, so they achieve the implementation of their right or wrong decisions.


P.S. Mr Zelensky will likely force himself to apologize and try to win Mr. Trump's favor again to resume American aid, but that will not last long. Mr. Trump is hard to be pleased, and Mr. Zelensky is guaranteed to bring shame on himself.

The Ukrainians will have to accept a ceasefire on almost Mr. Putin's terms (which is almost capitulation) and get upset because all their sacrifices over 3 years of war were in vain. Ukraine will lose part of its territory and promise to reduce its army, not joining NATO, etc. The threat of repeated aggression from Russia is very high and Ukraine will not receive effective security guarantees from the US.

Europe will also be upset - its 3 years of aid to Ukraine was in vain and the threat of the Russia's attack has only increased.

Mr. Putin will finally be happy: he proves to the whole world that he is right about Ukraine and the Ukrainians, his “another world” is now the new reality and even the US shares it.

Mr. Trump will be happy to receive the coveted Nobel Peace Prize and will go on to destroy the US and the world order.

The other countries will arm themselves and split into groups.

And all together will keep observing the continuation of the great Disintegration.