Trump Won’t Fix It

It seems that the whole world's attention now is focused on the negotiations on a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian war which D. Trump himself has undertaken to conduct. Yes, he does know how to attract attention, create a show for himself аnd, which is most important, to remove all responsibility for what he has said and done like real politician, not a businessman.

But any show is a double-edged sword. If the much-hyped peace initiative fails, Mr. Trump will disappoint the 59% of Americans who according to a recent poll of CNN disapprove the way Mr. Trump is handling the US relationship with Russia and 55% Americans which disapprove the way Mr. Trump is handling the situation in Ukraine. Therefore, he will try to present any outcome of peace talks as his victory. Mr. Putin will do the same for the Russians. They both are very interested in a truce in Ukraine, but now it can only be done on Mr. Putin's terms.

My friends in Kyiv say that the civilian population and the military in Ukraine are very tired of the war, and many are ready to accept almost any terms of a ceasefire without thinking about whether it will last long or not.

So, now the Trump+Putin tandem is in a strong position, while Ukraine is in a weak one. Mr. Trump can help to agree a ceasefire on Mr. Putin's terms (which is practically a capitulation) and then claim that there could not have been a better deal and that he was the only one who got it. And he can win the Nobel Peace Prize, and let Europe maintain the ceasefire with its peacekeepers on the future demarcation line, placing on them all the responsibility later, when Russia starts military actions again.

Mr. Trump's role here reminds me of an old joke. A poor man somewhere in the Middle East found an old oil lamp and accidentally rubbed it. A genie appeared from there and offered to grant him any wish in gratitude. The poor man asked for a permanent residency in the US. The genie replied: "No problem. Give me a $ 1million and I'll do for you Green Card through investment."

What did Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin achieve in their negotiations?

Much has already been written on this topic with an abundance of all sorts of details that only divert attention from the essence. Here is a brief summary of the negotiations:
- Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke on the phone for about two hours.

- Russia stops attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure, but disagrees to the wider 30-day ceasefire that Mr. Trump hoped for.

- Mr. Putin ordered the Russian military to stop all such attacks, the Kremin said in a statement, but also that foreign military aid to Ukraine should stop to prevent the conflict escalating. By the way, while being asked about Putin's aid demand, Mr. Trump told Fox News the issue was never discussed. One of the interlocutors is lying.

- The parties agreed to continue negotiations and create expert groups.

- The parties also discussed possible future broad cooperation between the US and Russia in the economic and energy sectors, and even planned to hold a friendly hockey match.

Mr. Trump is persistently bringing the isolated Mr. Putin back into big politics.

What happened after the negotiations: a projection into the future.

- Mr. Trump told Fox News that "… the 30-day ceasefire sought by Ukraine would have been tough."

- Russia and Ukraine accused each other of trying to launch cross-border attacks, with each saying its forces had repelled attempted incursions.

- Russia and Ukraine also accused each other for the overnight drone airstrikes, in particular, on energy infrastructure which happened just hours after the alleged pause of attacks on Ukraine's energy system.

After all this, the future of Mr. Trump’s peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is clearly visible:
- The Russians will keep hitting Ukraine with drones and missiles, including energy infrastructure, but they will say they are only hitting military targets. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated just that during recent talks with the US delegation in Saudi Arabia.

- The Ukrainians will complain about the Russians and ask the international community to send observers to monitor the enemy's actions. The Russians will do the same.

- The Russians will not agree to a complete ceasefire, accuse the Ukrainians of breaking existing agreements and military actions will continue.

Daydreamer, showman, treacherous ally and caring enemy.

Mr. Trump is daydreamer and a showman.
“Peace in Ukraine in 24 hours,” as well as “peace in the Middle East,” are his pure PR-campaigns which are inflated by the world media. Russia’s war with Ukraine has been going on since 2014 in one form or another, and it will also take years, not days or months, to stop it.

A Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko, professor of international politics at John Hopkins University confirms that: “Trump has consistently been in favor of a quick solution. And quick solutions don't resolve this kind of conflict.”
And then Mr. Radchenko absolutely correctly notes: “Trump is looking for a short-term "deal" he can tout… Despite being a much stronger power, the United States is not really willing to stick with it by supporting Ukraine for the foreseeable future, and it is certainly not willing to risk escalation with Russia and go to war over Ukraine. Putin is aware of that.”

Mr. Putin now simply has no reason to make any compromises - his troops are advancing deep into Ukraine, heavily bombing cities and energy infrastructure, he has pushed back the Ukrainians in the Kursk region and the same Trump has helped him a lot in this by suspending of military aid to Ukraine, including intelligence sharing. Therefore, the peace talks widely advertised by Mr. Trump will drag on for much longer than “24 hours.”

Mr. Trump has not received (and will not receive) Mr. Putin's consent to a full ceasefire similar to the one he got from Mr. Zelensky. Mr. Trump will be (is already) stuck with a plethora of options that benefit only Russia. Direct (albeit telephone) negotiations with Mr. Putin have yielded virtually nothing. The mountain has brought forth a mouse, and the world media did a great job of advertising the nothingness.

Thus, Mr. Trump can only force Ukraine to accept peace on the Russians' terms which could have been done 3 years ago, or start to really put pressure on Putin, arming Ukraine along the way. However, Mr. Trump clearly does not want/cannot pressurize Mr. Putin. Also, in my opinion, Mr. Trump is not able to concentrate his attention on one thing for long, so if Ukraine, with the help of Europe, does not agree to Mr. Putin's conditions, Mr. Trump will announce that all parties do not want peace and he stops his mediation.
Mr. Trump promised to stop the war in the Middle East in a similar way and managed to organize a pause there for almost 2 months, but recently the hostilities between Israel and Hamas resumed and Mr. Trump had fully supported the Israelis.

Mr. Trump is an unpredictable (if not treacherous) ally, but gentle and caring foe, judging by his polite interactions with Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un.
Perhaps, Ukraine and Europe should also not be afraid to turn their backs on Mr. Trump. And should Canada, Mexico, Denmark with Greenland do the same?

Mr. Trump is clearly not a genie from the old magic lamp.
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Update as of March, 22:

My friends in Kyiv report that the shelling of residential areas of the Ukrainian capital has noticeably increased after the telephone conversation on March 18 between the two main supporters of peace in Ukraine - Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin.
I also know from acquaintances that city of Odessa was hit unusually hard on March 20.

Apparently, Mr. Putin is increasing the pressure on Ukraine in order to push Mr. Trump to force the Ukrainians to accept his terms of a ceasefire, i.e. capitulation (Ukraine's renunciation of Crimea and 4 regions that are not even fully occupied by the Russians, neutral status, renunciation of NATO membership).

Mr. Trump can do nothing with Mr. Putin, but he does not want to retreat from the role of peacemaker yet which means he will put pressure on the Ukrainians. This is easier to do.