Russian “Shadow Fleet” Needs Actions, Not Words

The European Union must focus on a new sanctions package to suffocate Russia's economy and force Mr. Putin to end the war in Ukraine, France's foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, said on May 14, 2025. The EU is going to adopt another package of sanctions against Russia - the 17th one since the war in Ukraine began. Mr. Barrot also acknowledged the fact that the impact of sanctions had been insufficient so far, and said that the EU needed to work closer with the US.

The US, for its part, is also ready to introduce next, “tougher” sanctions against Russia if significant progress is not achieved in the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the near future. This was recently stated by the US Secretary of State M. Rubio. Senator Lindsey Graham, a pro-Ukraine Republican, gathered bipartisan signatures for a new plan to impose tariffs on goods from any country that buys oil, gas and uranium from Russia.

The new EU sanctions target, in particular, about 200 vessels of Russian “shadow fleet,” bringing the total number of sanctioned ships to 350. The shadow fleet provides Russia with oil trade mainly with India and China, bypassing the sanctions, and significantly helps to finance the war in Ukraine.

I recently wrote on this topic with reference to the authoritative Ukrainian specialist in sea transportation. The gist of that article was: around 60% of Russian crude oil comes from Russian ports on the Baltic Sea. It is needed to somehow block the straits which connect the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic Ocean - Kattegat, Skagerrak, the Great and Little Belt, the English Channel… They all belong to Ukraine's friends - Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Great Britain, France, in theory this is not difficult to do and, thus, deprive the Russians of 60% of their oil exports.
However, it turns out that it is very difficult. At least, for 3 years of war in Ukraine and 16 packages of European "sanctions from hell" that has not been done, and likely would never be. And any methods of supporting the efficiency of the sanctions are not even considered. It is believed that if sanctions are imposed, they work automatically.

The Russians are defending their "freedom of shadow navigation" by military means.

On May 15, the Estonian Navy attempted to detain the unflagged Jaguar tanker which was in the UK sanctions list and sailing to Russia in neutral waters. Estonian helicopter and a border patrol boat were sent to intercept it. The tanker captain ignored the Estonian patrol's demands, and Russian fighter jet Su-35 arrived to help. Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia's state media outlet RT, explained the jet was sent to prevent the vessel's seizure.

SU-35 has entered Estonian airspace and remained there for about a minute. NATO fighter jets were scrambled, Su-35 left and Estonian authorities preferred to send their patrol ship to escort the unflagged tanker to Russian waters.
The Jaguar tanker, previously named the Argent, had earlier this year loaded oil at the Russian port of Ust-Luga, sailed to India and returned to Primorsk, Russia, LSEG tracking data showed. In a couple of months, this tanker will go out to sea again with a cargo of crude oil for sale, unload it somewhere and return. It becomes clear why the "sanctions from hell" have been in effect for more than 3 years, and the Russian economy still has not collapsed.

Mr. Putin needs actions, not words.

As you can see, the Russians are ready to protect their “shadow fleet” by the military force which cannot be said about the countries of the collective West. Mr. Putin considers the West pampered, weak, gutless, divided, too democratic, incapable for any decisive action and constantly gives it the opportunity to prove the opposite. But the West continues to just "express concern," impose some sanctions and Mr. Putin gives it another chance.

"Russia's destabilizing actions will not deter us from acting within international law to maintain maritime security, safety and freedom of navigation," Martin O'Donnell, a spokesperson for NATO's military headquarters said about the incident in Estonian waters. However, this idle talk do not affect Mr. Putin. He knows that these are empty words while actions are needed. What actions?

Well, for example, not to be afraid to detain sanctioned ships and shoot down Russian planes that violate the air borders of neighboring countries, as the Turks did almost 10 years ago. On November 24, 2015, Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 aircraft near the border with Syria because the pilot invaded Turkish airspace.
“I think if there is a party that needs to apologize, it is not us… Those who violated our airspace are the ones who need to apologize. Our pilots and our armed forces, they simply fulfilled their duties, which consisted of responding to … violations of the rules of engagement,” Turkish President R. Erdogan said then. That is why Mr. Putin listens very closely to Turkey’s opinion and does not take into account the constant “concerns” of Western leaders. The greatest peacemaker of all time, D. Trump, can exclaim “Vladimir, stop!” many times in his Truth Social, but this will not stop the war in Ukraine. Some actions are needed.

The difference between liberal democracies and autocracies.

1. Mr. Putin does not care about the lives of his soldiers in Ukraine for the revival of the USSR or the greatness of Russia (and Mr. Putin himself) as he sees it, but the West cannot afford this.
2. Western leaders will be re-elected in 4-5 years, but Mr. Putin won’t (which is why Mr. Trump is probably jealous of him).
3. Mr. Putin can turn around the Russian economy and direct most of the resources to the cause he needs (the war in Ukraine, for example), but Western countries cannot.
4. Mr. Putin has no political opposition in the country, but the democratic countries do.
5. Russia has no real freedom of speech, but the democratic countries do.
6. Therefore, Putin’s Russia is united and can act quickly as a single whole, while Western countries and NATO cannot.

The difference between liberal democracies and autocracies (Russia, in my opinion, has moved into the category of dictatorships) is especially evident during crises. Democracies are mostly about talking, not acting. They are divided into opposing parties, cannot make coordinated decisions and their countries stagnate. And now the democracies are doing everything to avoid winning the confrontation declared against them by authoritarian Russia, even though they are not fighting themselves, but the Ukrainians. In addition, democracies are very much afraid of Putin's nuclear weapons and do not want to provoke him.

What should the collective West do in this situation? Exactly what it is already doing: express concerns, pray, and hope that everything will be fine someday. For example, Mr. Putin will die or become the victim of a coup d'etat.


P.S. What's interesting: Mr. Trump is now the same irritant for America that Mr. Putin is for the world for the last 17 years. They both act, breaking all sorts of taboos and provoking their opponents to do something in response. And there is no "police" that would make both of them follow the established order.