US Election 2020 - Trump or Сivil War
It seems the country is doomed to put up with Trump for 4 more years.
![US Election 2020 - Trump or Сivil War]()
Image from Pixabay.com
The most probable scenario in the case of Biden's victory on November 3, 2020 is that Trump won't acknowledge the election results and under the threat of a civil war will get himself elected president by court decision. There's no law to turn him out of the White House if he doesn't want to leave, so the Americans will have to put up with Trump for at least four more years in any case.
I proceed from:
1. Trump is narcissistic, boorish and spiteful clown, liar and cynical scoundrel.
2. Trump is ready to sacrifice the well-being of the nation to please his political ambitions - whether it is about his impeachment or recent police brutality protests. He really "doesn't care" about violent clashes in the country.
3. The main idea of the Republican Party for the 2020 election is "Trump is a good president". He gave to almost every American $1200 Stimulus checks. He is not responsible for the past mistakes (it is "bad" Obama's administration, he is not in charge for the present - the coronavirus and subsequent unemployment came from "bad" China and he is not to blame for the future - governors are "badly" fighting the coronavirus and street protests.
4. Despite everything, Trump now has about 40% support among the U.S. citizens. Some of them seem to be ready to defend Trump's presidency by force of arms. Trump's supporters may be right or wrong, but there are quite a few of them.
5. The turnout at president election day is likely to be less than 50% - many will vote by mail because of the coronavirus (Trump resists that very much) and some will not go to vote at all, not willing to choose the lesser from 2 evils.
6. The Republican Party is mounting a national effort to shape who votes in November with plans to recruit as many as 50,000 volunteers to monitor polling places. The program is premised on preventing voter fraud. Democrats say the true aim is to suppress minority voters.
7. The U.S. president will really be elected by the US Electoral College on December 14, 2020, not by the people on November 3, 2020. The electors are not obliged to vote in conformity with the opinion of the residents of their states according to the Constitution and several "rogue electors" can tilt the balance of the US election in favor of one candidate.
8. Russia is already interfering with the American election 2020 on Bernie Sanders' and Trump's side. China and Iran have also recently begun to interfere and they won't stop doing that.
9. As Justice Brett Kavanaugh observed, the court likes to adhere to an “‘avoid-chaos’ principle of judging".
Then the action plan for Trump's re-election should be:
- to suppress the hesitant voters as much as possible with the help of Republican "observers" on the election day;
- not to acknowledge the election results, to trumpet about foreign (Russian, Chinese, Iranian) interference, declare the election null and void, Trump being an advocate of the Constitution and justice and start raising Trump's supporters.
- to bribe a few electors beforehand in different states to vote for Sanders, for example, to take away votes from Biden and thus to win the Electoral College voting.
- to forward the making of the final decision to Supreme Court. Since the court follows the "avoid-chaos" principle, it will resolve a matter in Trump's favor within a couple of weeks of the confrontation.
The bad thing here is that even a couple of days of confrontation can quickly turn into a full civil war taking into consideration the existing U.S. internal conflicts and recent nationwide outbreak of the old "Black lives matter" conflict over the killing of George Floyd.
That's in my opinion the most probable scenario for the next US presidential election. Nothing like this has ever happened in US history and even the probability of such development of the events indicates the direction. Someone like Trump has never been elected as the US president and his reelection would fit well the country's current course of disintegration.
P.S. Dear Reader! I am very much interested in your opinion on the subject of this article. Please, write a comment or ask a question if you want to clarify something.
Yours,
Igor Chykalov
Image from Pixabay.com
The most probable scenario in the case of Biden's victory on November 3, 2020 is that Trump won't acknowledge the election results and under the threat of a civil war will get himself elected president by court decision. There's no law to turn him out of the White House if he doesn't want to leave, so the Americans will have to put up with Trump for at least four more years in any case.
I proceed from:
1. Trump is narcissistic, boorish and spiteful clown, liar and cynical scoundrel.
2. Trump is ready to sacrifice the well-being of the nation to please his political ambitions - whether it is about his impeachment or recent police brutality protests. He really "doesn't care" about violent clashes in the country.
3. The main idea of the Republican Party for the 2020 election is "Trump is a good president". He gave to almost every American $1200 Stimulus checks. He is not responsible for the past mistakes (it is "bad" Obama's administration, he is not in charge for the present - the coronavirus and subsequent unemployment came from "bad" China and he is not to blame for the future - governors are "badly" fighting the coronavirus and street protests.
4. Despite everything, Trump now has about 40% support among the U.S. citizens. Some of them seem to be ready to defend Trump's presidency by force of arms. Trump's supporters may be right or wrong, but there are quite a few of them.
5. The turnout at president election day is likely to be less than 50% - many will vote by mail because of the coronavirus (Trump resists that very much) and some will not go to vote at all, not willing to choose the lesser from 2 evils.
6. The Republican Party is mounting a national effort to shape who votes in November with plans to recruit as many as 50,000 volunteers to monitor polling places. The program is premised on preventing voter fraud. Democrats say the true aim is to suppress minority voters.
7. The U.S. president will really be elected by the US Electoral College on December 14, 2020, not by the people on November 3, 2020. The electors are not obliged to vote in conformity with the opinion of the residents of their states according to the Constitution and several "rogue electors" can tilt the balance of the US election in favor of one candidate.
8. Russia is already interfering with the American election 2020 on Bernie Sanders' and Trump's side. China and Iran have also recently begun to interfere and they won't stop doing that.
9. As Justice Brett Kavanaugh observed, the court likes to adhere to an “‘avoid-chaos’ principle of judging".
..........
Then the action plan for Trump's re-election should be:
- to suppress the hesitant voters as much as possible with the help of Republican "observers" on the election day;
- not to acknowledge the election results, to trumpet about foreign (Russian, Chinese, Iranian) interference, declare the election null and void, Trump being an advocate of the Constitution and justice and start raising Trump's supporters.
- to bribe a few electors beforehand in different states to vote for Sanders, for example, to take away votes from Biden and thus to win the Electoral College voting.
- to forward the making of the final decision to Supreme Court. Since the court follows the "avoid-chaos" principle, it will resolve a matter in Trump's favor within a couple of weeks of the confrontation.
The bad thing here is that even a couple of days of confrontation can quickly turn into a full civil war taking into consideration the existing U.S. internal conflicts and recent nationwide outbreak of the old "Black lives matter" conflict over the killing of George Floyd.
..........
That's in my opinion the most probable scenario for the next US presidential election. Nothing like this has ever happened in US history and even the probability of such development of the events indicates the direction. Someone like Trump has never been elected as the US president and his reelection would fit well the country's current course of disintegration.
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P.S. Dear Reader! I am very much interested in your opinion on the subject of this article. Please, write a comment or ask a question if you want to clarify something.
Yours,
Igor Chykalov
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