Are February 15-19, 2022 the D-Days for Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Russian historian Andrey Zubov states that it is very likely because the winter is ending and too much money were spent for relocation of the Russian troops to the Ukrainian land and sea borders.

Image by Victoria_Borodinova/


Here I’m just translating the article into English because it seems to be worthwhile. I basically share Mr. Zubov’s point of view, but the probability of invasion in these dates, as for me, is around 75% because of hidden factors like the end of Olympic Games in China (February 20), Mr. Putin’s assessment of the damage from Western reaction and the reaction of Russian people.
However, the situation is really very serious. By raising the stakes, Mr. Putin is cutting off his retreat.


Andrey Zubov

I Wish I Was Wrong

February10, 2022

Like many people around the world, and especially in our own countries, Russia and Ukraine, I am carefully catching every word of the official talks about the situation around Ukraine and the "security guarantees”. What until recently seemed improbable is now emerging more and more clearly as a reality in the very near future.

All talks with Western leaders have failed. Today's meeting between Sergei Lavrov and Elisabeth Truss is recognized by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry as “talking dumb to deaf”. This is the end of diplomacy. When a diplomat says "no," he is no longer a diplomat.

On the contrary, the talks in Beijing with "friend Xi" ended very positively. We do not know what they agreed upon, but Putin was visibly satisfied. Has the "axis" emerged? Or are the approaches to it still being cleared?

But Putin is no longer worried about the eastern flank, and today Russian-Belarusian exercises have started in Polesye and at the Brest training ground, that is, very close to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. They involve 30-50 thousand military men of the two countries, heavy rocket weapons, squadrons of attack aircraft, a lot of tanks. The maneuvers are to continue until February 20. They are commanded by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army.

On Monday, February 13, naval maneuvers will begin in the Black Sea and, I believe, in the eastern Mediterranean. Virtually all of Russia's active large combat surface ships from all fleets have either already passed through or are close to the Bosporus. The Pacific squadron, having come a long way, has already passed the Suez Canal and entered the Mediterranean Sea. The three cruisers, the flagships of these squadrons of the Northern, Pacific and Baltic fleets, now in the Mediterranean, are "aircraft carrier” hunters. Their powerful deck missiles can destroy any surface target.

On February 13, the Kerch Strait and practically the entire coast of Ukraine in both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea are completely closed to all navigation. The maneuvers at sea will continue until the 19th.

Another 100-120,000 Russian troops with all field infrastructure are located along the Russian-Ukrainian border from the Bryansk region to the Rostov region. And there is a grouping in Crimea. Some of them have been transferred from Siberia and the Far East.

Enormous sums of money have been spent on this concentration of troops and navy. What lies ahead?

The gun will either be fired by February 19 or hidden in a case on February 20. Especially since the weather conditions after February 20 will also make it difficult to invade from Belarus into Ukraine. Kiev is 90 km from the border, but most of it is the Polesye bogs. And they will start to open up, all the more under the tracks of tanks and Iskanders.

So it's either February 15-19 invasion or going home.

If there is an invasion, the scenario is simple and foolhardy. Anywhere in the border areas of Donbass, Crimea, or Slobozhanshchina, an attack by Ukrainian fighters or military on civilians or border patrols is played out, an appeal for help to the Russian army and navy is heard loudly, and the maneuvers turn into an invasion. From the north, the east, and the south. And from the land and sea (it is not for nothing that six major landing ships have just been transferred from all the fleets to the Black Sea). A puppet "government of national salvation" is created which on behalf of the people of Ukraine asks for help from "Banderites" and "NATO hirelings" and is ready to negotiate with Moscow and Donetsk...

One can only speculate about further developments. God forbid that the order - "to Kharkov, Kiev, Odessa!" should sound until February 20. I want this silence very much. But with my mind I understand that the possibility of a peaceful end to the current crisis is becoming less and less likely by every hour. So far, since the end of November with enviable accuracy and steadfastness the Kremlin has been playing out an entirely different scenario.

I will not say that this scenario is more detrimental to Russia than to anyone else. This has already been said without me.


P.S. Dear Reader! I am very much interested in your opinion on the subject of this article. Please, write a comment or ask a question if you want to clarify something.
Igor Chykalov
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