Are February 15-19, 2022 the D-Days for Russian invasion of Ukraine? A View from Kyiv

I don't usually translate other people's articles, but there are exceptions. Today I came across an article on the Russia-Ukraine conflict again written by one of my favorite Ukrainian journalists and decided to introduce it to the Americans.

Yuriy Butusov is the editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian online publication Censor.net.
I discovered his works couple of years ago and always enjoy reading his articles. After reading a series of his articles about recent rapid war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh I was sure he was a professional military man and journalist, so well the articles were analyzed from a military point of view. However, no, he is just a professional journalist, and (in my subjective opinion) of a very high class.

I offer you to read a translation of his article about the possible invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine in the nearest future. As always, everything is short, clear and professional.








February 12, 2022


1. Will Russia start a large-scale war against Ukraine on February 16?
No. Russian troops are deployed around Ukraine, but the enemy has no readiness for immediate action against Ukraine.

2. Why is the West making statements every day about an inevitable war and making things worse, does this mean there will be a war?
No. The U.S., Britain and their allies are forcing all European NATO countries to determine their political positions by making statements about an imminent war. The U.S. is radicalizing Europe by its actions, so that European countries create a united front of support for Ukraine, and thus break the separatist non-interference agreements with Putin. Biden wants to ensure European solidarity on the issue of Ukraine. Now NATO is really getting involved in the hybrid war in Ukraine.

3. President Zelensky berates the West for inflaming the situation and provoking panic among investors, are we really benefiting from the policies of the U.S. and its allies?
Yes. In fact, for the first time in eight years of our war, leading NATO countries have taken an active offensive stance against Putin's threats, and for the first time we have received a wide flow of military and financial aid. For the first time, NATO is deploying a contingent near Ukraine's borders to likely counter a Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is enormous and invaluable aid for the people of Ukraine. And President Zelensky has either lost sight of what is going on, or the pro-Russian forces in his entourage, Yermak and Demchenko, are manipulating the president and taking advantage of his ignorance not to mess up their contacts with the Kremlin. NATO's position deserves only deep gratitude; it is a historic turning point in Ukraine's relations with the West.

4. Won't such panic and declarations of war undermine our economy?
No. Our economy and state are undermined not by the eight-year war with Russia, not by Putin's threats, and certainly not by NATO aid, but by the incompetence of the government and its inability to take advantage of the opportunities and huge international support that this crisis provides.

5. Could Russia launch an attack with air and missile strikes, and then throw ground forces into the attack?
Yes. But Russia did not attack from the air even in 2014, because this would lead to more casualties, and a harsher anti-Russian reaction in the world. Air strikes without a ground attack would increase resistance and international support for Ukraine. Every journalist in the world's media is here, and the video of Russian air terror will be a major topic around the world. The European Parliament passed a resolution on a complete blockade of Russian energy imports to Europe in the event of a major war (Igor Chykalov: if this had been done in 2014, there would have been no seizure of Crimea or war in Donbass. Putin got it right then). The Russian economy will not be able to withstand such a blockade.

6. Is Russia interested in an attack?
Yes. Russia has de facto annexed Donbass and Crimea, and the Russian army needs to force Ukrainian forces to stop shooting and push back from Donetsk and Gorlovka. We pose the threat of eliminating the "DPR" at any moment, and Russia will not be able to stabilize its power there. It is the Donbass that is the front where Russia is interested in conducting a ground attack, which can be politically called the actions of the "militia" rather than the regular army.

7. Do citizens have to leave, evacuate?
No. We must take our place in the formation. We don't all need to take up arms - there are none in the depots, every adequate person is needed in his place, in logistics, supply, on the home front, on the front line. It is necessary to understand what to do in a crisis, war, it is normal in today's world. This crisis is not the last.

8. Will this crisis end this winter?
No. This war is for years, for many years. Ukraine is too rich and too important geopolitically to ever be left alone by our neighbors. As long as Putin is in power, and as long as Ukraine remains a weak, poorly organized state where the rulers try to appease Putin, "look in his eyes," "just stop shooting," and fail the special operations of their own special services against Russia, we will remain a victim in the eyes of the aggressor.

9. Can we win the war with Russia?
Yes. We are already winning the war with Russia. NATO's support dramatically increases our defense capabilities and creates many new opportunities. Putin has not been able to fulfill his goals of bringing back Yanukovych's puppet regime, returning pro-Russian forces to power, and forcing Ukraine to stop resisting like Transnistria. We have made unprecedented progress in developing our independence, and every year our strength grows. Putin, like Hitler and Stalin, will not last forever. When we build a state with competent leaders who pay attention first and foremost to security and defense, Russia with or without Putin will realize the futility of further war, and then either they will return the Crimea and Donbass themselves, or we will do it ourselves.

Source


P.S. Dear Reader! I am very much interested in your opinion on the subject of this article. Please, write a comment or ask a question if you want to clarify something.
Yours,
Igor Chykalov