Disintegration, Crises and Chaos. States

Every nation is to blame for its own decline and destruction.
Any union ceases to exist due to violation of internal agreements and/or injustice in distribution of the material benefits within it.

An unspoken social contract exists in any country.

Each state is the union of its people and the elite.
The people create the material wealth (the economy) of a country, and the elite (politics) establish the rules according to which this material wealth is distributed in the society. These rules are called «monetary and fiscal policy” of the state:

“Monetary policy refers to central bank activities that are directed toward influencing the quantity of money and credit in an economy. By contrast, fiscal policy refers to the government’s decisions about taxation and spending. Both monetary and fiscal policies are used to regulate economic activity over time. They can be used to accelerate growth when an economy starts to slow or to moderate growth and activity when an economy starts to overheat. In addition, fiscal policy can be used to redistribute income and wealth.”

There is an unspoken social contract between the people (the economy) and the elite (politics) in any democratic or authoritarian country:
- the people work, pay taxes, protect the country from external enemies if necessary, and do not interfere with the elite’s governance.
- the elite is supported by the people and undertakes to maintain order and justice in the country, to govern effectively and develop the state in every possible way for the common good. The elite receives for this high salaries, pensions, respect and all sorts of benefits.

Elites violate the social contract by working for themselves rather than for the common good of their nations.

Unfortunately, the elites violate the social contract in most modern countries: they forget their responsibilities and begin to abuse the power given to them by people, directing it to their personal enrichment rather than to the public good, i.e. they actually work against their people. Corruption is the «abuse of entrusted power for private gain”, that's why it's always unpleasant to listen to the statements of various politicians about the need to fight corruption. It is the elite (politics) that is the source of corruption in any country.

The people of different countries do not see all that and keep electing their governments from representatives of the same corrupt elites.
This is the road to internal conflicts and self-destruction of any nation.


So, the people (economy) constantly work, create national wealth and believe that the elites (politics) also work for the common good.

However, the elites (politicians) work hardly just for themselves:
- they distribute the national wealth unfairly (into their own pockets inclusively), so the number of dollar millionaires in the world has grown from 0.4% of the adult population in 2000 to 1.1% in 2022.
I think that this almost 3-fold increase in millionaires in the world occurred due to the growth of personal wealth not only of businessmen who make money with their minds and hands, but also of politicians who make money with their social position.
Global Wealth Report 2023 states that then (in 2022) 1.1% of the world's population was equal to 59.4 million people who owned together $208.3 trillion or 45.8% of the global wealth. The Report predicts that there will be about 1.5% such millionaires in 2027;

- they often waste taxpayers' money.
For example, the US fought for about 20 years in the Middle East and spent about $8 trillion to introduce the democratic principles to the locals. It would be better to spend this money on medicine for Americans.
2 years ago Russia started a war against Ukraine. The US Department of Defense counted, that “… Military operations in Ukraine have cost Russia up to $211 billion and the country has lost $10 billion in canceled or paused arms sales. At least 20 medium to large Russian naval vessels have been sunk in the Black Sea and 315,000 Russian soldiers have either been killed or wounded».
However, Mr. Putin apparently believes that this is an acceptable price for his (and Russia's) greatness;

- they interfere in the economy by manipulating the money supply in circulation (it is easy with fiat money) and the «federal funds rate” in the US (which is called “key interest rate” in Europe). Thus they create financial crises time after time - the Great Depression in 1929-39, “Savings and loan crisis” in 1980-95, Great Recession in 2007-2009 and COVID-19 recession in 2020-22.

- they impoverish their fellow citizens with the help of targeted inflation policy pursued by many central banks, thereby creating the inflation and devaluing the national currencies.
The famous Bitcoin appeared in the world just as a means of preserving the value of capital against constant depreciation of current fiat money by governments.
A creator of Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto correctly wrote:
"The root problem with conventional currencies is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve."

Why is global debt growing?

As a result of such treacherous monetary and fiscal policies of the elites, many countries around the world earn less than they spend and run out of funds. That is why all governments always try to raise taxes (which is apparent to everyone) and constantly borrow money (which almost nobody pays attention to). Therefore, it is not surprising that global debt is only growing and it was around $307 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, largely driven by developed countries like the US, Japan, Great Britain and France.

Debts always exacerbate all internal conflicts in any union – family, business or state.

Economic injustice divided mainly problem-free France.

Violation of the social contract and economic injustice provoked the “Yellow Vests” protests in France. They started in November 2018 and continued until now in one form or another.
At first there were weekly protests against rising the fuel prices, high cost of living, economic inequality and disproportionate burden of taxation which fell mainly on the shoulders of the middle class. Then the protests died down for a while during the coronavirus pandemic.

And then in January 2023 the government decided to increase the retirement age of the French from 62 to 64 years old. This again brought more than one million people onto the streets, because that was another clear violation of the social contract in the country. In addition, President Macron very undemocratically decided to pass this law without a voting in the National Assembly, using a special constitutional instrument called Article 49.3. This, apparently, finally convinced the French that the government could not be trusted, and added emotions to the confrontation.

Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Center of the United States and Europe, has formulated very well the quintessence of the conflict between French elite and the people and what the nation got as a result of this confrontation:
“There is generally a sense of anger and frustration in the French population and the increasing feeling of disengagement with decision-makers and disconnect.»

That’s the mechanism of the division of the nation at work. French elite and French people are becoming disconnected.

«Disconnection of decision-makers» happens in many countries around the world.

The national elites of many countries are physically disconnected from their people - they live, study, work, get treated, rest and die in places other than their poorer fellow citizens do, and thereby divide their nations from within into “us” and “them”.
“When partners find no more consent, their business isn’t worth a cent”, and in this case, their common “business” is their state. The gap between rich and poor is becoming wider in different countries, so guess what will happen to these countries next?

A vast majority of the modern states cannot benefit to the most of their citizens and exist just for the enrichment of the elites at the people's expense. Thus, the conflict arises between the majority that creates the national wealth and the minority that distributes it. This is the main conflict that divides the nations from within and leads to the collapse of all inefficient states.

Who will fall apart first among the large countries - Russia, EU, USA or China?

All those states and unions have many inner problems, but in my opinion, the democratic EU and USA have a greater chance of collapse, because the democracy is harmful in times of crises.

Totalitarian Russia has significantly less chance of splitting into parts (even despite the war in Ukraine and international sanctions which Mr. Putin circumvents quite successfully). Since the majority of the Russian people (65% in November 2023) no matter what supports the policy of their elite (Mr. Putin) it means that the country is not divided and stands quite firmly on its feet.

Against this background, authoritarian China looks like a flagship of sustainability despite some economic difficulties of the last few years.

Democratic countries fight hardly with self-created problems (immigration, for example).

There will be elections to the European Parliament soon and I think the European Union may not survive them at the beginning of June 2024. Very different countries with very different seeing and capabilities have gathered under the flag of the EU. In addition to the Hungary's main right-wing populist Viktor Orban, the right-wing prime ministers have been elected in Slovakia and the Netherlands in 2023, so the political tilt to the right is clearly visible in the EU.

The people of the EU countries begin to actively vote for the rights and this is understandable. Europe is so mired down in «xenophilia» due to years of denunciation of «xenophobia» and misguided immigration policy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that European nations have almost lost their national identity. The right-wing movements in Europe advocate for its restoration and many Europeans vote for that. Then there will be even more right-wingers in the European Parliament and they will definitely dissolve the EU if not in June 2024, then at the next European Parliament elections in 2029.


A confrontation between Democrats and Republicans with their followers continues as it is rife in the US in recent years on a whole range of issues. The main ones now are the attempts of the American Deep State to convict Mr. Trump for his four criminal cases before presidential election and changing the US immigration policy in connection to military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. These two issues deeply divide America.

I think that the US Supreme Court will not take the responsibility to make a decision on the indictment (and removal from the election) of Mr. Trump, taking into account his broad support among the Americans, and will transfer the right to decide that to the US Congress. Congressmen most likely also do not agree on anything and will leave the decision to ordinary voters in November 2024. Isn’t that democratic? This means that Mr. Trump’s name will appear on all state and national ballots, and the American Deep State has lost that battle.

All this will turn the next 9 months in the US into a fierce political war between two halves of America, which could very likely escalate into a civil war if Mr. Biden wins in November. If Mr. Trump wins the election, he will begin to overhaul the complete US system. Then the American Deep State must give the last battle to Mr. Trump (who will become much stronger after the election) and thereby split the country into the parts or withdraw from the fight without the civil war, but the US will turn from a republic into dictatorship in this case. Do you think this is impossible?
“Never say “never.”


So, as you can see there are no states that would be “too big to collapse”. The elites of many countries have prepared everything for the inevitable end of their states with their short-sightedness and greed.

Will Durant, an American writer, historian, and philosopher was right by saying: “A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within.”