Disintegration, Crises and Chaos. Immigration

I heard an anecdote once.
A woman came to a psychiatrist and said that she was sent to him by her husband who had considered her crazy because she loved pancakes very much. The doctor answered that he also liked pancakes, but that didn’t mean he was crazy. Then the woman invited the doctor for dinner and boasted that both pantries in her kitchen filled with pancakes.
A quantitative indicator often reflects a certain quality.

The problem with immigration now is not the immigration itself, but the number of immigrants coming. Many democratic developed countries as good Christians have become so obsessed with protecting the rights of whoever that they have forgotten their own ones. They voluntarily have imposed on themselves a non-existent obligation to help others and thus created a problem for themselves. The number of immigrants in these countries has greatly increased recent times and created some nuisance for the locals, but the governments keep clinging to their illusion despite the common sense. Naturally, the locals start voting right-wing.

Imagine that some strangers come to your house because they don't like their own one. You let them in because you are democrat and good Christian. They decide to stay forever because your house is better. You are frustrated. Why?

Are you a bad democrat?
Yes and no. You are a narrow-minded democrat. Democracy is not about sacrificing your own rights.
And who is to blame here?
Obviously, you. You do not protect your own rights. The guests must wait for an invitation.

The main causes of emigration.

The desire to change the country of residence as a way to escape the difficulties of living there is quite understandable and, of course, has a right to exist. However, in the last 10-15 years, immigration has become so massive and spontaneous that even the US - a large, supposedly rich country which was founded by the immigrants - is now experiencing big difficulties because of it. Well, in fact because of its wrong attitude towards immigration.

The main causes of mass emigration in the world over the last 40-50 years are:
- hostilities. The Rule of Law in Armed Conflict Online Portal monitors more than 110 current armed conflicts, some of which last for more than 50 years. Look at the map and you will see which countries people really want to leave because of a physical threat to their lives (Africa, the Middle East);
- the division of nations into poor and rich and the deterioration of the economic conditions of life due to inflation, which engenders the devaluation of national currencies and the impoverishment of people. View the list and you will see which countries people most want to leave due to economic difficulties (Argentina, Venezuela, Middle East, Africa).
By the way, don’t be fooled by the seemingly good inflation rates in developed countries - US (3.5%), UK (3.4%)... Over 20 years in the US, annual inflation of 3.5% will depreciate your savings by almost 2 times (1.035¹⁹=1.92). This is how the government makes money from inflation by constantly devaluing your fiat money. Here is the secret of the global popularity of Bitcoin;
- the pressure of totalitarian and dictatorial regimes on their citizens. For example, after the start of the war in Ukraine, about 1 million citizens have left Russia by the end of 2022.

Now climate change and global warming on the planet have not yet greatly affected emigration throughout the world, but in 30-50 years this will be the main cause for the mass emigration of people from equatorial countries. People will flee heat, natural disasters, extreme weather and associated water/ food shortages and health problems. See the warming forecast for the rest of the 21st century on a map - the most problematic places are again North Africa and the Middle East (in particular, countries of the Arabian Peninsula - world's major oil and gas reserves with 94 million population).

Thus, all or almost all the causes of emigration coincide in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, so the main source of immigration to Europe can be easily identified. The main source of immigration to Canada and the US now are Mexico and the countries of Central and South America for the same reasons (mostly internal wars and poverty).

All of these causes of the mass displacement of people will only get worse over time that is why I called this series of articles “Disintegration, Crises and Chaos.” Humanity is entering a period of extraordinary challenges that will require extraordinary solutions, so each country will be forced to reconsider many of its established concepts and rules and, in particular, immigration policy.

Immigration is like a blood transfusion for the body of a state.

Immigration is similar to a blood transfusion in medicine, only the body of the patient is the body of the state. In medicine, the right amount of fresh blood of the right type helps the patient. It is recommended to transfuse 1 unit (around 1 pint=473 ml – I.C.) of packed red cells at a time to an average adult. Considering that the adult body contains about 1.2-1.5 gallons (around 5 liters) of blood, a single infusion should be about 8-10% and no more. And any amount of blood of the wrong type simply harms the patient: these are, after all, alien bodies.

This is how it works in the body of the state.
Too many immigrants become a problem, and “wrong” type of immigrants (for example, convicted criminals) are not needed by any country. And the people of the US feel all that and don’t like such immigration. Everything should be within reasonable limits. Therefore, here (as with any other issue) a balance is needed, which the Democrats of the US clearly failed to maintain.

The 1952 US law works against America.

In 1952, “The Immigration and Nationality Act»” has been passed: any person, arriving at the border of the country or being already illegally in the US, has the right to apply for asylum and receives the right to lawfully remain in the country until their case is adjudicated. Now, compared to 1952, circumstances have changed much (the number of immigrants increased tremendously) and this law works against America. The job of our legislators is to notice and correct such things timely.

Now about 200 thousand immigrants on average cross the southern border per month. This is a huge quantity and from May 2023 all of them are taken into custody until the issue is resolved, which can drag on for years. It is not surprising that the governors of southern states (Texas, for example) are firmly against such order.

Mr. Biden and the Democrats have made the same mistake as German Chancellor Angela Merkel did in 2015 - they really invited all immigrants indiscriminately to the US.

And the immigrants naturally keep coming by hundreds of thousands a month, because:
1) it’s simply dangerous to be in Mexico, Haiti and the countries of Central and South America now because of banditry and wars of gangster clans;
2) American Democrats declared that they «know the importance of our country’s history as a nation of immigrants. We honor our fundamental values by treating all people who come to the United States with dignity and respect, and we always seek to embrace — not to attack — immigrants.»
3) The 1952 law has not been repealed. Anyone can claim asylum right at the US border or after entering the country illegally.

Recent German experience with the immigration wave.

In August 2015, at the height of the European migrant crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Germany would process asylum applications from Syrian refugees if they just somehow managed to reach its territory. That year, nearly 1.1 million asylum seekers entered Germany. This is not very much compared to the population of Germany of 82 million people at that time, but all the Germans (and me, too) noticed the newcomers, because these immigrants brought some specific oriental problems with them. In particular, a few dozens of German women were sexually assaulted and mugged in a few German cities by groups of men largely of Arab and north African appearance in the beginning of January 2016. This is the negative impact of an alien and completely “wrong” blood type on the patient’s body (if we recall the analogy between immigration and blood transfusion).

Mrs. Merkel's phrase «Wir schaffen das – We’ll cope with this» became widely known in Germany at the time, although some party colleagues criticized her decision to allow in hundreds of thousands of migrants. Other colleagues praised the decision, saying that Frau Merkel sent «a strong signal of humanity to show that Europe's values are valid also in difficult times.»

I remember that I talked to a couple of Germans on a Lufthansa plane in summer 2015, and at that time they were positive about the idea of ​​hosting unfortunate refugees from civil war-torn Syria. After it turned out that the refugees were not only poor and not only from Syria. Anyway, after these events Mrs. Merkel's approval rating dropped to 54% in October 2015, the lowest it had been since 2011.

She personally invited at least several hundred thousand of migrants to Germany and the Germans did not like that. I think this is why Mrs. Merkel's party lost many seats in the next federal election of 2017, and in 2021 she stepped down as the leader of her party and did not seek a fifth term as Chancellor in the 2021 federal election. We can say that German democracy has worked well in that case.

Mrs. Merkel also widely used then the word “xenophobia” in her speeches (“the rejection of everything alien") without paying attention to the fact that the German Chancellor herself becomes a “xenophile” (!) in that case and, therefore, prefers the “foreign” and not the German. The German people probably didn’t really need such a Bundeschancellor.

Like with the wave of immigrants to the United States from the south, Germany was unprepared for such large numbers of immigrants coming from the Middle East, but Mrs. Merkel sincerely believed that the Germans «will cope with this» and did not want to change her point of view.
If there are too many immigrants in a country, it (even such a multinational country as the US) loses its national identity, many voters do not like this and all accusations of xenophobia, in my opinion, are meaningless here. People as a rule do not want to change what they are used to for something different or alien, and this is their personal business. The government should not set the priorities, but can simply hold a referendum or just polls and act in accordance with the will of the people, not leading them behind its own understanding of the problem since it may be wrong.

One of the consequences of Mrs. Merkel’s incorrect (from my point of view) approach to the immigration crisis in Germany in 2015 was the increased popularity of the far right party «Alternative for Germany» (AfD) which gained 12% of the vote in the 2017 and 2021 German federal elections in a row.

The rise of the right in any country is usually the result of poor performance of the left and vice versa.

Turkey's practical approach to immigration.

I really liked the immigration policy of semi-authoritarian Turkey.

The authorities do not have a feeling of false guilt towards poor immigrants, they know they owe them nothing and therefore the Turks do not bring the issue to a problem. The Turkish authorities act in a way that benefits just them. They easily turn on immigration programs when they need them and easily stop them when they no longer need them. And they rarely explain their actions and do not argue about the rights of unfortunate immigrants.

The Turks tried very hard to attract foreigners to their country, probably, starting in the 2010s. I got there for the first time in 2020. An annual residence permit could be obtained if you had just a rental agreement for a year! When purchasing real estate for $75K or more you get the residence permit for two years. Then it could be easily extended couple times and after 5 years it was possible to obtain Turkish citizenship, of course, after passing the exam.

All that continued until 2022, when large numbers of war refugees poured in from Russia and Ukraine. The number of Russian-speaking people has increased sharply in tourist cities all along the Mediterranean coast. Russian language could be heard everywhere. Turkish sellers in shops, pharmacies, restaurants, and bazaars started to speak Russian. In case of any language difficulty there were always 3-4 people in a public place ready to help with translation, and 1-2 of them were Turks. And...

At the end of 2022, the Turkish authorities stopped issuing residence permits for rental housing, raised the bar for the price of purchasing real estate to obtain an annual residence permit, and some areas were completely closed for the purchasing of real estate by Russian-speaking visitors. Western democrats would call that a violation of human rights and maybe “russophobia”, but the Turks explained their actions in a very simple and straightforward manner: “Quantity of Russian-speaking foreigners have grown to more than 20% in some districts of our town. We don’t want more.” And no any democratic remorse. They are the hosts and you are the guest. If you don't like it, leave.

What to do about the immigration problem in the US?

America must do something about immigration, and the main thing here is to correctly determine the number of immigrants who can be allowed into the country, and this is the prerogative of the government. And if the number of arriving immigrants is “overwhelming”, as it is said now, then immigration laws need to be changed; they are not suitable for the present moment.
The principle here should be very simple: «guests must wait for an invitation.»

I don't believe that razor wire fence or Mr. Trump's famous wall can play any significant role in solving the immigration problem. And I don't believe that the US can't protect its borders from an influx of illegal immigrants with 60 thousand US Customs and Border protection employees, including 17 thousand of Border Patrol agents who are concentrated on the Mexican border.

Republicans (as well as Democrats) sabotage important decisions for the country.

So, the country needs to quickly pass laws limiting immigration and enforce them. Only those the country needs should be allowed in. That's all.

It sounds simple, but there is a problem: the political enmity of the two main parties interferes.
The US legislators have forgotten that they received a salary for finding and making the best decisions for the well-being of the entire country. The US elites are degenerating and now they think more about the short-term benefits for their party than about the country. All 3 branches of US government are divided into warring groups based on party affiliation and often cannot come to a consensus on simpler issues than immigration. Now the Democrats and President Biden are apparently already would be happy to make some changes to immigration legislation, but the Republicans are against. They chose the right tactics for the success of their candidate in the presidential elections, and yes, it is destructive for the country, but who cares about the country...

Republicans seem to want to keep the immigration issue open until the November 2024 election as their main argument against Mr. Biden. In early 2024, Republicans in the Senate refused to pass a bill developed by a bipartisan team of legislators (!) that would have made it harder to get asylum and given Biden the power to stop taking asylum applications when migrant crossings reached a certain number. This is sabotage.

Now the question hangs, tension in the country is growing, and the number of arriving immigrants is increasing. They all need to be supported somehow, and the federals strive to shift these costs to local authorities, and the locals do the opposite. This is a good example of the dynamic stagnation of the country.

Democrats (as well as Republicans) do not know how to solve the country's problems.

The Democratic Party (and President Biden) are truly at risk of losing the next presidency, and it's clear why. Americans are now statistically the most annoyed by inflation and immigration.

Regarding the immigration: even liberal «The New York Times» believes that the Democrats and President Biden, in particular, allowed this immigration tsunami into the country with their wrong immigration policies. Here the Republicans and Mr. Trump are in a winning position.

Regarding the inflation: unfortunately, President Biden still does not understand what inflation is and where it comes from like many other rulers of different countries do (but this does not make any difference for Americans). So, Mr. Trump (who, unfortunately, does not care about the inflation at all) has some preference for this issue, too, since formally he has nothing to do with the inflation for the last 4 years.

So Mr. Biden is losing to Mr. Trump both in dealing with immigration and inflation. If Mr. Biden loses the upcoming election, that shows that the democracy in the US is still somehow working, in this case against the Democrats though.

The Americans, elections and vicious circle of the US.

The American people, unfortunately, also do not understand that the inflation they consider to be the main problem of the country is constantly being created by the Federal Reserve under Democratic or Republican administration. Therefore, in November 2024 the people will again vote for one of the two evils, postponing the solution of their problems for another 4 years. And then there will be the beginning of a new cycle and the next elections, which will change nothing for the country fundamentally.

This is how I generally see the life cycle of the United States which I once called in one of my articles «The blind lead the blind».

The rise of the right in any country is usually the result of poor performance of the left and vice versa. The Republicans and Mr. Trump are likely to win the presidential election. And it will happen not because they are doing so good, but because the Democrats and Mr. Biden are doing so bad. Then the American people (who are the “country”) will find themselves the losers under both right and left governments. This is the inevitable result of voting for the lesser evil. However, the people are the ones who have handed over the politics to their politicians and now can do nothing about them, and, basically, have no interest for that.

Therefore, the country is doomed to move in an unknown direction like a boat with 2 ignorant captains quarreling at the helm and the rowers who are indifferent about their future.