Trump's Actions “Through Strength” Fail

Mr. Trump is actively changing the established order home and abroad. Why?
He wants to establish a new order as he sees it, and go down in history like Mr. Putin.

Mr. Putin is succeeding in his changing the world with a little help from Mr. Trump, but Mr. Trump also has to contend with America’s “internal enemies.” Russia’s internal enemies have been killed or driven out of the country long ago. That’s why Russia (as well as China) is more united and objectively stronger than the US.

Mr. Trump believes that the US has enough strength to make his vision a reality.

I already wrote that Mr. Trump's guide to action was “Project 2025” from the conservative think tank “The Heritage Foundation.” This document links the US domestic and foreign policy to the isolationist, conservative and Christian values which Mr. Trump clearly shares and embodies. So far this has only caused growing disapproval among Americans, indignation among allies, admiration among opponents, and jumps in financial, stock, and other global markets.
Whether Mr. Trump is right or wrong, this is how he sees the situation in the US and in the world, and nothing can be done about that. Mr. Trump is as confident as ever in the correctness of his vision, and the rest of the Republicans are mostly unwilling (afraid?) to argue with him.

Mr. Trump and his appointees believe that “Europe is woke, weak, and freeloading” and that seems to be true.
By the way, Mr. Putin apparently thinks the same way, since he dared to start his war in Ukraine 3 years ago which he was waging against the entire “declining and decadent West,” including the US.

America has also weakened considerably, especially since 2016, largely due to the confrontation between the country's two main parties and their followers for which Mr. Trump has much to his credit. Just take a look at the country's clear divide: half the room (Democrats) is seated, while another half (Republicans) is standing and applauding Mr. Trump during his address to a joint session of Congress on March 4, 2025. The US is distinctly divided and the two halves are fighting each other, so all the nation’s energy is spent on this struggle and the country stagnates.

Despite that, most Americans (including Mr. Trump) still believe that the US is rich, fair, strong, prosperous country of equal opportunity. Somewhen that was true, but now it is a myth. The Americans don't notice large national debt, impoverishing inflation which devalues the US dollar, parasitic healthcare system and stagnation of the country. Mr. Trump himself as the convicted felon is, in particular, a good example of the fact that not everyone is equal before the law in the US as it is declared.

The Americans elected Mr. Trump as president because he was going to change something after the impotent rule of the Democrats. However, the problems of the US did not go away and Mr. Trump immediately began to exacerbate them at home and abroad with his revolutionary actions. It will be interesting to see whether America can withstand such a sharp change of the course.

The correctness of the vision is tested by life. If you are able to implement your plans, it means that your vision of the situation was correct and you assessed everything (including your strength and weakness) right.

Mr. Trump's “peace through strength” plan in Ukraine is failing because of Russia’s position.

S. Witkoff, D. Trump's special representative for the Middle East and Ukraine, has said in the interview with Tucker Carlson that “peace through strength... is not just a slogan, it actually works”.
However, time goes by but Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Trump cannot bring a ceasefire in Ukraine because of Russia's position, let alone any kind of longer-term peace.

On April 11, Mr. Witkoff brought to Mr. Trump an original proposal after a meeting with Mr. Putin in Moscow: to support a strategy that would give Russia ownership of four eastern Ukrainian regions it attempted to annex in 2022, and which, by the way, Russia has not yet fully occupied. Mr. Witkoff apparently has not read Mr. Trump's book, "The Art of the Deal." A “deal” requires taking into account the opinions of both parties, but Mr. Vitkoff's proposal only mentions the Russia’s one and not a word about Ukraine. Then it is not a deal, but an ultimatum. Mr. Putin has been presenting this ultimatum to Ukraine since the very beginning of the war.

To back up its ultimatum, Russia launched a missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy, killing more than 30 civilians and wounding more than 100 on April 13. Mr. Trump called the strike “a mistake,” and yet the US notified its G7 allies that it would not support a joint statement, condemning the Sumy strike because Mr. Trump wanted to continue negotiations with Mr. Putin.

There is a strong impression that Mr. Trump is playing on the Russian’s side. He clearly helps Mr. Putin, but Mr. Putin clearly does not want to help Mr. Trump. Peace talks about Ukraine have stalled and even Mr. Trump admitted that. The Russians are not afraid of American strength and I do not believe that pleasing Mr. Putin is Mr. Trump's special cunning plan. He simply cannot do anything about the negotiations and cannot stop his “peacekeeping” efforts because he promised humanity “peace in 24 hours.” Mr. Putin cleverly took Mr. Trump at his word and now successfully made him dance to his tune.

Life shows that Mr. Trump overestimated his abilities and the strength of the US.

Why Mr. Trump desperately needs a ceasefire in Ukraine now.

“Project 2025” directly indicates that China is the main geopolitical and economic rival of the US, the main threat is in the Indo-Pacific region and Russia can be used against China and in this case sanctions against it can be softened.

Mr. Trump will seek to achieve any progress on a ceasefire in Ukraine before a meeting with Xi Jinping which is currently planned (no exact date has been set). If the US president fails to negotiate on Ukraine before that meeting, China's leader will likely offer his help, thus highlighting Mr. Trump's inability to demonstrate crisis management effectiveness and Trump's famous "art of the deal." Progress on a ceasefire in Ukraine in the coming month or two is therefore very important to Mr. Trump. Even to the point of attempting to fully subordinate Ukraine to Russia's demands since Mr. Trump is unable to change Mr. Putin's position.

Mr. Trump's trade war “through strength” against China is failing, too.

Another aspect of Mr. Trump’s flurry of activity in US foreign policy is new tariffs on imports from nearly every country in the world which many countries see as the start of a trade war. On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration introduced the “reciprocal” tariffs that affected about 185 countries. The minimum tariff is 10%. Interestingly, new tariffs were not imposed on Russia and Belarus.

For China, the new tariffs amounted to 34%, but taking into account the 20% tariffs imposed on China in March for its alleged role in supplying fentanyl to the US, the total tariffs for China amounted to 54%. In response, China on April 4 imposed a 34% tariff on all goods from the US and is going to introduce export controls on seven types of rare earth metals, which are used in the production of, in particular, computer processors. Mr. Trump called it a “mistake” and on April 9 raised the tariff on all Chinese exports to 104%. China responded on April 9 by raising tariffs on the US to 84%. Then D. Trump raised tariffs on China again, this time to 125% - for "lack of respect for world trade" (!), but immediately introduced a 90-day pause on imposing new tariffs on all other countries, i.e. he did not dare to continue the trade war with all other countries. The Department of State immediately stated that the reason was negotiations with 75 countries (but not with China).

So China has accepted the challenge of the US and is entering a trade war. The Chinese are also not afraid of American strength and D. Trump.

So far, Mr. Trump has only defeated Panama with the Panama Canal, and has also set up many nations against himself and America with his boorish demands (Canada, Denmark/Greenland) and new tariffs (all other countries except Russia and Co.)

Another point of view on the US trade war against the whole world.

Mr. Trump believes that all other countries have been abusing the generosity of the US for many years and now he is restoring justice.

However, there is another point of view on the current status quo in the world which the British economist T. Ash managed to briefly outline here:
“… U.S. exceptionalism, largely the modus operandi since WW2 - the state of affairs where the default settings of the global trade, financial, multilateral and to some extent the global security architecture, are set by the US, and to the advantage of the US. This exceptionalism gives the US huge leverage - soft and hard power - it gets to impose its values and interests therein - over the rest of tne world. It means, for example, that US sanctions matter.
The quid pro quo is that the U.S. pays to extend security guarantees to key allies, maintains the dollar as the supreme global reserve currency and its Treasuries as the global risk free rate (benchmark in effect) and allows them some flexibility in setting terms for trade - to keep them allies, in effect.”

I agree.
In my opinion, the US has not maintained the order it established for many years. President Nixon uncoupled the US dollar from gold in 1971 and since then the Fed has been constantly devaluing the American currency for the US and the rest of the world by handing out the unsecured loans, Quantitative Easing and dropping the “helicopter money” during financial crises.
And now President Trump wants to maintain “the American exceptionalism,” but not to be a guarantor of global security and established global trade. Moreover, he wants to make all countries pay for that one way or another (higher import tariffs, increased dues to NATO, continuation of using the US dollar as a reserve currency).

America is already in a privileged position in relation to all other countries and it cannot be any better. Mr. Trump is sawing off the branch the US is sitting on.

The US will not win the trade war.

The media writes a lot about how Trump's new tariffs could lead the US and the global economy into a recession by the end of the year even without a direct confrontation between the US and China: J.P. Morgan raised its forecast of that from 40% to 60%. However, a further crisis in relations and a transition to a full-scale trade war between the two countries increases the likelihood of a global crisis even more. For both major economies of the world (and for all others, too), this will be a hard test, and I think America is in a more vulnerable position due to its internal division almost equally between supporters and opponents of President Trump. I would like to remind the subtitle of one of my previous articles in this regard:
“The leader elects and asserts himself and the way he is treated,
And those who are weaker obsequiously look at him.
There is no other way in this life for the pack to win.
And the pack with elected chieftain will be defeated.”

Democracies will lose in a clash with authoritarian regimes because of the lack of unity and inefficiency in decision-making and implementation of those decisions. Mr. Trump is trying to become an authoritarian leader (which is quite difficult to do in a traditionally democratic country) and for that he is remaking the US to his vision, while China has long been united by the Communist Party and Xi Jinping has been an experienced authoritarian leader for many years.

China now looks especially solid against the backdrop of the international mess created by Mr. Trump.

Modesty as the basis for making the right decisions.

One of the foundations for making the right decisions in life is, oddly enough, such a seemingly inapplicable there quality as modesty. Why?

Modesty is the ability to correctly see and accept your current place in life.
If you make a decision based on seeing thyself better than you really are, you will definitely make a mistake because you do not have your imaginary qualities. And this is the mistake that Mr. Trump and the US Republican Party are now making. Democrats did that, too, in their time. Actually, almost all people do.

America doesn’t correspond to its current place in the world and I think all Americans will soon have to see that clearly, thanks to Mr. Trump, who simply reveals that better than anyone else. The country will either quickly slide into dictatorship, but retain its name “The United States of America,” or it will break down into separate states which will benefit from that, and this is the only positive aspect of electing Mr. Trump as president.