America Has Crossed its Rubicon

Mr. Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” also called the “Spending and Tax bill” has passed the US Senate due to the Vice President JD Vance’s tie breaking vote, since the opinions were split 50/50 after three Republican senators voted “no.” That was on July 1, and the bill returned to the House for final approval.

Mr. Trump was eager to get his megabill passed before Independence Day, and it was really approved on July 3. The House Republicans have passed the bill by a vote of 218 to 214 almost along the party lines. All 212 Democrats plus two Republicans voted against it. Then the president will sign it and the new law will go into effect.

Mr. Trump has somehow managed to get proud and freedom-loving Republican legislators to work selflessly day and night. He has been a constant presence throughout the process for Republicans, pressuring members to strike a deal and threatening to support primary challengers to lawmakers who oppose the bill. They were apparently very afraid that the vindictive president would expel them from Congress and the party, and spent almost two days without a break in legislative work.

Mr. Trump's bill is voluminous and highly controversial, as reflected in the results of three votes in Congress. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that megabill adds at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt during next 10 years. Yet it cuts Medicaid for many million Americans and increases the debt limit once again, but Mr. Trump was desperate for it to pass, so Republican lawmakers no longer cared how many trillions of dollars the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” would add to the US national debt or what social programs it would cut. Сharity begins at home.

Mr. Trump's bill once again divides the nation into two nearly equal halves.

The democratic trap of “simple majority” voting: a vote close to 51/49 shows that the decision is not yet mature or it is wrong.

In recent years, voting on many important issues in the US has ended in approximate parity (50%+ versus 50%-). For example, D. Trump received 77 million+ popular votes on November 5, 2024, while K. Harris got 75 million+ ones.

“Spending and Tax bill” also has passed the House for the first time by just one vote, then JD Vance's tie breaking vote was needed in the Senate, and the final vote in the House ended 218-214 in favor of the Republicans. From the point of view of democratic procedure, everything is correct. However, such “truly nation-shaping” bills which affect millions of Americans shouldn’t be passed by a simple 50%+ majority.
I wrote already that this rule plays against democratic countries and organizations that apply democracy mindlessly, not paying attention to the fact that the remaining (50%-) voters are basically against as well as all those who didn’t come to vote. If almost half the country (or Congress) is against a decision, it means the decision is raw or wrong and should not be made. At least not at that time.

The US Constitution provides the voting on certain special issues in Senate and House by so-called “supermajority” (a two-thirds vote), but that was not the case with “Spending and Tax bill.” It's a pity, because voting by simple majority on such important issues for the nation only actively divides the country into parts. After all, neither supporters nor opponents of the proposed bill know in advance what it will lead to. Some believe, while others hope. From this point of view, voting on important issues by “supermajority” is simply necessary as a means of not making a quick wrong decision. The right decision takes time, it must mature, but the country’s leaders are convinced that they must “lead” their people, so they rush to implement their often wrong vision into life instead of explaining it and waiting for the understanding and support of the majority of legislators and ordinary citizens.

A two-thirds vote is useful since it allows only a mature decision to be passed because it is supported by a real majority of voters which is a certain guarantee of its correctness and, most importantly, viability in the sense that two-thirds of citizens will be able to implement it. When the vote is around 51/49, the decision is often considered democratically made, but about a half of the participants is not going to implement it and the other half is not able to do anything about it. That's why different democracies in the world find themselves being stuck in a long obscure processes like Brexit or the attempt of secession of Catalonia from Spain in 2017.

Moreover, if many important national decisions were conducted by a “two-thirds vote,” it would become clear that most of the proposed laws are simply unnecessary, and many candidates for top positions are not suitable. Current leaders of many nations in the world are deeply unpopular, in particular, because of wrong simple majority voting rule. That is why the nations, in particular, degrade under the leadership of such leaders.

And yet, supermajority voting in addition to weeding out immature decisions unites the nation, while simple majority voting divides it.

The economic consequences of Mr. Trump's foreign and domestic policies in six months.

The state of the economy and international investment in a particular country is a good indicator of the state of affairs in that country. The attitude of international investors towards the success of the US under the leadership of D. Trump is currently at the level of "uncertainty".

“One Big, Beautiful Bill” and the US national debt, the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's, the US trade war with the world launched by Mr. Trump's import tariffs do not inspire optimism about the economic future of the US and investors are reluctant to invest in the US dollar, US stocks and bonds. Therefore, the demand for the USD in the world is declining and over the past six months the US national currency has fallen by more than 10%: the DXY index, showing the exchange rate of the USD to 6 other popular currencies at the beginning of the year was about 110, and now it is about 97. This is a fairly objective and non-politicized assessment of the results of Mr. Trump's combined efforts as the US President.
Let's see what happens next.

The political consequences of Mr. Trump's foreign and domestic policies.

The standoff between Mr. Trump and the “Deep State” (as Mr. Trump calls the US government apparatus) is growing. The US Supreme Court often sides with the president and, in my opinion, the crisis in the judicial branch of the federal government has reached its peak: for example, recently Dept. of Justice sued all federal judges in Maryland over deportation order. This is an unprecedented case.

It has long been clear that the law in the US worked selectively: Mr Trump himself is a living example of this by being a convicted felon who for some political reasons remained free. This means that there is no justice in the country. The elites of the US, like those of almost any other (including authoritarian) country, are also beyond the reach of justice.
Justice is truly the “glue” that holds the nation together, so it’s no wonder that Americans (and therefore the country) are weakening and becoming divided in their vision of the American reality. None of the Supreme Court justices called for impeachment of Justice C. Thomas after a major scandal with his corruption! This means that the colleagues share Mr. Thomas’s worldview, and make politically motivated, “necessary” decisions.


Elon Musk stated he would launch a new party if Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill" is being passed: “If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day.”

Basically, it is very correct. It is time to break the monopoly of the RP-DP on the US political market, but... All the media write that it is very difficult to launch a new party in the US.
Yes, of course, if you are going to create an analogue of the Republican or Democratic Party and offer the Americans something unnecessary, unimportant and complicated. And this is not difficult at all if you offer something necessary and simple: for example, a radical reduction in prices for healthcare and medications. Then, of course, there will be problems with the donors of this party who earn good money from healthcare and medical insurance, but the people (and even Mr. Trump's fans) will wholeheartedly support such an initiative of the new party. Then Medicaid and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) won't be needed.
So, may God help you, Mr. Musk.

America has сrossed its Rubicon.

Rubicon is a little, shallow river in northeastern Italy, separating two Italian provinces. In 49 BC, Julius Caesar has crossed this river with his army and moved towards Rome. It was a direct violation of Roman law which forbade its generals from leading their armies out of their assigned provinces. Thus, Julius Caesar has started a civil war which he eventually won. At the very beginning of 44 BC, he was declared a “dictator for life” and began to transform Roman Republic into Roman Empire, but was assassinated by a group of pro-republican senators quite soon, in March 44 BC.
I wouldn’t want to compare Mr. Trump and Julius Caesar, but I think that the current US President has no less imperial ambitions than the ancient Roman “dictator for life.”

The phrase "crossing the Rubicon" means taking a step of no return. I consider the adoption of the “Spending and Tax bill” by Congress to be such a step. Mr. Trump has long declared war on the “Deep State” and he is winning it now. America has crossed its Rubicon. Now the country, in my opinion, has only two paths.
Mr. Trump, following the example of Julius Caesar, will keep transforming the US republic into the US empire. He will completely subjugate the federal government apparatus, destroy the remnants of democracy and go to subjugate the states, which will resist. All this quickly and sharply exacerbates the internal conflicts of the country, and then there will be:
1. the breakdown of the country into separate states with a very possible civil war, because Mr. Trump will not allow states to secede from the US,
or
2. Putin-type dictatorship under the guise of democracy (if Mr. Trump manages to impose his will on the states). In this case, the collapse of the country is postponed for some time.

Mr. Trump's bill being not passed by the Congress would mean to me that the "Deep State" is strong and it is winning the war. In that case, the fight would continue for the next 3.5 years, then the next presidential election would take place and the country would continue to slowly die under the leadership of the next president (a Democrat?) until the feds go bankrupt due to accumulated debt, inflation and corruption. And then the US would also fall apart into separate states.

What is better for America?

It is difficult to say which of the above scenarios of the future is better (or worse) for America.
The US as a country has exhausted itself and is reaching a dead end. As for me, a horrible end is better than endless horror. From this perspective, the people were intuitively right to elect Mr. Trump as president in the last election because he will likely destroy the US faster and better than anyone else during his term. I have already explained this opinion here.

Yes, I believe that the collapse of the US is inevitable under the leadership of either of the two main parties. The American people have become an object of political manipulation of their two elites and completely handed over to them the governance of the country which deteriorated much under such leadership. Democrats and Republicans equally abuse the people's trust, are interested only in their own well-being, enjoy eternal stay in power and do not see the current problems of the country and its future. This means that the US has no future, and all Americans will soon be left without their country. This is neither good nor bad, this is the objective reality for America and nothing can be done about it.


P.S. The breakdown of the US into separate states is not a catastrophe, but a natural process of dividing a large ineffective structure with broken internal connections into several smaller and, God willing, effective pieces. Moreover, the entire infrastructure of the states (Constitutions, legislative, executive and judicial branches) exists and is ready to take care of their citizens. However, I know for sure that many Americans will lament the collapse of their big country, just like many Soviet citizens lamented for a long the collapse of the USSR. Mr. Putin still does.