The Democrats' mistake

On July 21, 2024, President Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the presidential race and not run for the next president of the US. In general, it was the right decision which was supported by the majority of the Americans. The only thing which slightly spoiled the impression of Mr. Biden's honesty was the fact that this decision followed the move of the Democratic donors who had frozen around $90 million allocated for Biden's presidential campaign. So, these are the guys who say the last word ...

Well, anyway Mr. Biden steps aside because as he said he «… decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation.» He immediately endorsed K. Harris as the future nominee for the US presidency from the Democratic Party. She was also endorsed by high-ranking Democrats, B. Obama and, apparently, earlier by the very donors who so firmly asked Mr. Biden to leave.

К. Harris had already entered the electoral struggle and even released her first electoral video. Public opinion polls conducted immediately showed that she is lagging behind D. Trump by only 1%. What happens further is clear: the Democratic Party will approve at its National Convention on August 19-22 the candidacy of K. Harris as a nominee for the post of President of the US and the electoral struggle will go on the known path until the popular election day on November 5 and the voting of the electors in their states on December 17, 2024.

The country's major problems and Mr. Trump's approach to them.

The main problems of the U.S. are considered to be economics (inflation and high cost of living, in particular), border security and immigration, abortions, foreign policy (Russo-Ukrainian and Israel-Hamas wars, in particular), healthcare, democracy, LGBT rights, climate change and education. The opinions of the candidates, their parties and supporters are often opposite which determines the existing division of the country and its current stagnation.

Mr. Trump, in particular, opposes abortion, illegal immigration, any addressing to the climate change, military aid to Ukraine and pro-Palestinian rallies in the US, LGBT rights and democracy (since he «calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government»). He also wants to reorganize NATO, repeal Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and cut entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

In economics, Mr. Trump favors slogan“America first” (isolationism), keeping taxes low for the wealthy, setting the universal baseline tariff of 10% on all imports and wants to heavily increase tariffs on Chinese goods.

However, the main thing about Mr. Trump's program should be quite clear to his supporters. He has long promised the US complete system overhaul which he called «the Deep State». He does not explain what and how he is going to build next, but it seems that Americans do not need that. As an example of similar populism we can recall that the Republicans have tried many times to cancel Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), but they were unable to offer anything in return while being in power in 2017-2020. Apparently, it happened because healthcare in the US is an untouchable field of activity of donors of both parties.

So, it is possible to summarize Mr. Trump's program in short as "destruction of the existing order" which is basically clear (it's the most important thing), and this idea has the support of about half of the politically active people in the US even though they don't know what kind of system they will get after. I think this is simply because they are fed up with the "existing order" and rich Democrats in government.

The country's major problems and Mrs. Harris's approach to them.

She favors women's right to abortion, racial justice for people of color, addressing the climate change problems, democracy as it exists in the US, recognizes that the immigration system is broken and needs fixing, supports an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a “two-state solution” there.
In economics, Mrs. Harris supports the Biden administration’s economic policies, funding the small businesses, student debt forgiveness and bigger tax credits for middle- and low-income families.

Thus, it is possible to briefly formulate Ms. Harris's program as "maintaining the existing order" and she enjoys the support of the second half of the politically active residents of the US. Apparently, not because the existing order is so good, but because many people simply do not like Mr. Trump.

I don't like him either, but... There is nothing/nobody "bad" or "good" in life. Every person is needed for something and is just a tool for realization of a special task. Mr. Trump, for example, is very good at destroying the whole system of existing relations in the US together with the country itself, and I believe no one can do that better than him. You only have to decide whether you need that or not, and vote (or not) accordingly.

The major and minor problems of the US from my perspective.

As you can see, the national debt, inflation and corruption are not mentioned at all in the candidates' programs. The people and both major parties of the country also do not see/want to see that the main problems of the US are actually flawed policy of incurring debts, inflation that devalues the US dollar and people's savings, and “abuse of entrusted power for private gain” (in other words, corruption). These are the main causes of dividing the country into rich and poor which is the main division, not just red and blue states. All other problems grow out of these ones or are beyond the control of Americans (like the climate change, for example).

Yes, it is difficult to understand the programs of candidates (and parties) because there is so much different stuff there. Indeed, how to distinguish the main things and what is the best among thousands of details? Nobody wants to sort it out. That’s what people do - they listen not to what their politicians say, but how they say it, and then vote based on their emotions at a given moment. But emotions distort the perception of truth. It's like an ordinary guy or girl seemed beautiful when you met him/her in your youth and became ordinary again as time had passed. And you thought they were your prince or princess ....

The Democrats' main mistake.

The motto of the US “In God we trust” is written on all dollar bills and is actually propaganda. American God is Money. If you replace the word "God" with "Money" you get a true and complete picture of the meaning of life for almost all Americans. Money is the purpose and meaning of life for many people in the world, but the whole way of living in America is about making money.
The Federal Reserve is constantly manipulating the people’s fiat money (which is just virtual electronic money) through inflation targeting policy, and thus everyone who “trusts in money” will fail. The purpose of life of the Americans (which, as I understand it, is Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness) can only be achieved through money, which is constantly devalued by the FRS, i. e. the government. And it turns out that the people live to work, vote to their own detriment and call the USA the "work, work, work" country.

The attitude of the US elites, of course, can be understood. They need nothing and have been resting on their laurels for a long time. The people constantly work for their benefit, obediently elect their representatives to the government, do not demand anything special from them, and simply cannot evaluate the results of work of any administration. All presidents, congressmen, etc., receive good salaries, various bonuses, honor and respect, then pensions; they are not responsible for anything (as in the case of Mr. Trump's immunity) and do not need to show any results of their activity except a political struggle. In case of failure they can always blame everything on political opponents. And this has been going on for decades. The people have spoiled their rulers and have long been unable to do anything about them even if they wanted to.

The Democrats' main mistake is they forgot in the heat of political struggle that they were elected primarily to improve the quality of life of the people. A party which wants to easily win elections in the US should not strive to preserve democracy/US global leadership/defeat Republicans, China, Russia, etc., but provide health and well-being to the US citizens.

How the 2024 US presidential election will end.

I think the replacing Mr. Biden with Mrs. Harris will have almost no effect on the course of events in the next US presidential election. The Democrats will likely lose.

I wrote on the subject of the previous presidential election in 2020 and I see a scenario «Trump or civil war 2.0» is looming now. It has become even more relevant after 4 years. The Electoral College vote in the states is the main intrigue of the presidential election for me.

The thing is the electors are not obliged to vote in conformity to the results of the popular vote in their states according to the Constitution and several "rogue electors" can tilt the balance of the election in favor of one candidate in their state. No elector has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged, just several of them were disqualified and replaced, and others fined in 2016 for that. I think there will be quite a few of those "faithless electors" now.

Then the "winner takes the votes of all state electors" rule comes into play, which I think is unfair, but it's written in the US Constitution. The Constitution can only be changed by consensus of both parties, which is unattainable now.

So, the variants are:
1. If the electors vote for Mr. Trump, he will move into the White House in January 2025 and start to actively “obliterate” the Deep State. That will end rather quickly (I think within the term of Mr. Trump's presidency) with a dictatorship or the breakup of the US into the groups of states, but in the case of a dictatorship a civil war in the USA will be avoided for sure. This is the most likely scenario from my point of view.

2. If the electors vote for Mrs. Harris (which is unlikely) — Mr. Trump will not recognize the result, start raising his supporters to fight against the "stolen" election for the second time and under the threat of a civil war will get himself elected president by court decision. Trump-appointed Justice Brett Kavanaugh once remarked, that the courts usually adhere to an “‘avoid-chaos’ principle of judging". Mr. Trump, as the judges see, is less dangerous than a civil war in the US, so in this case he will win the election. His presidency will end in a dictatorship or the breakup of the US into the groups of states (see p.1).

3. If, however, a majority of electors vote for Mrs. Harris as President and Mr. Trump and his supporters fail to realize the "stolen election 2.0" plan (i.e., the American Deep State wins the war), the stagnation of the US will continue and the country will slowly slide towards the same collapse that will happen later in this case. This option, in my opinion, is the least probable, since the Deep State is really losing battle after battle and I think that many government officials are now moving to Mr. Trump's side.

Which variant is better (or worse) for America?

It is the variant which is better for you. If you don't like the existing order very much, vote for Mr. Trump, who promises to destroy it (though it's not clear what will happen after). If you think the country is doing not bad, go ahead and vote for Mrs. Harris. If, however, you (like me) think both Democrats and Republicans are disconnected from reality and failing to run the country, vote against all or don't vote at all. That’s it.

When it comes to death, I know that many people (especially in old age) prefer a quick and even violent death rather than a long and painful dying from aging or disease. However, when the state dies, people don't see the process the same way, while it is essentially the same thing. So Americans will choose how quickly their country dies on November 5 and December 17, 2024 out of the 3 options above.
That's quite democratic.